Inflation is back. The first stage has been the rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 per barrel, which is already being passed on to the consumer economies. Too much inflation is a bad thing: it creates rising expectations and people try to anticipate them. But too little is even worse. The 2008 crisis caused a very costly deflation. .
María Fernanda Tapia Cortés | Mexico starts 2017 with two trending topics: the announcement of new gasoline prices and protests inspired by the adjustment period in the form of a 20% price hike. While Mexicans are filled with outrage, moguls anticipate the potential earnings that this represents. The question is: Who will the energy reform benefit?
Indonesia has announced that it is going to ease up its export ban on nickel ore. It appears it is going to allow nickel miners to export as long as they dedicate at least 30 percent of their smelter capacity to processing low-grade ore, defined as below 1.7 percent nickel. For Spanish Acerinox, as well as the rest of the stainless steel sector, this news is very negative as it will put downwards pressure on nickel prices.
The key point about the Fed’s exit strategy is not so much the pace of rate hikes which will be very gradual or just gradual, but also how it will reconfigure its balance.
Julius Baer Research | Oil’s push above USD 58 per barrel on the first trading day of the year seemingly only was a temporary burst of energy. The market’s focus is on quota compliance as the oil producers must now walk the talk of supply cuts. We remain sceptical that the supply deal will have a material impact, swiftly erase surplus supplies and provide lasting support to prices.
In general terms, leaving aside certain nuances, the short-term outlook in the US will be such that it will allow the Fed to raise interest rates, which will be taken as a positive symptom. But on the downside, this will mean higher funding costs. So issuers have already begun to anticípate these rate hikes which will make it difficult for them to match the debt issuance volumes of 2016.
I hate this endless temptation for bracketing time into what we call “years.” Time is time and, by definition, there are no interruptions. The problems which beset us in 2016 are still here, whether it’s terrorism or open warfare or Spain’s ingovernability. Thinking it’s going to be very different in 2017 is deceiving ourselves.
AXA IM | The past year has witnessed something of a turn-around in investors’ perceptions of the economic and financial outlook, chiefly on the back of hopes that the cloud of secular stagnation may be starting to dissipate. In our 2017 outlook, we take a step back from current market jitters and examine the fundamentals behind the present backdrop of ultra-low interest rates and poor economic growth. Simply we challenge the dominant idea that this is the fate of our future as investors.
As far as the global economy is concerned, 2017 will be the year when new US President Donald Trump will make his mark. That said, how far his influence will reach is still uncertain as it is still too soon to know how many of his policies will be implemented.
Those old jobs in productive manufacturing companies which exported from the developed countries to half the world are never coming back. You can’t suddenly use protectionism to reverse such a huge change which has taken place throughout the world.