Andrew Sheng via Caixin | There are two main lessons that we can draw from the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis: the failure of mainstream economics to predict and solve the crisis, and its inability to explain the rise of the Chinese economy
For once, BBVA chairman’s words have been a kind of premonition. Last week, when he said rather desperately that “negative interest rates are killing us,” he was not referring to Popular. But the fact remains that a few days later, the bank with Angel Ron at the helm announced a capital hike for 2.5 billion euros, slightly less than half of its stock market value. The aim of the operation is to offset the impact of future regulatory requirements and the shortfall related to the “floor clauses,” calculated at nearly 4.7 billion euros.
BBVA Research | The latest personal income and outlays report by the BEA, which is the favourite indicator for the Federal Reserve to measure deflation, showed that income continued to expand at a solid pace (0. 4 % MoM) , while spending increased dramatically (1 % MoM) in April . The increase in income was in line with consensus expectations, while the consumer spending increase was significantly higher (consensus expectations stood at 0.7% MoM). The increase in consumer spending in April was the highest since August 2009 .
AXA IM | When it first opened its borders to become the world’s leading exporter, China had to invest in overseas assets to recycle its surpluses. This was a one-way lane.
With the blustering presidential nomination process in full swing, ideological polarization among partisans often feels like a swelling tide in today’s America, adding a chaotic undercurrent of lurching impulses and public vitriol. There are also signs that partisanship among the electorate has increased recently and could be the root of governmental partisanship.
June will be a breathtaking month. The outcome of the British referendum could spark shock waves, causing financial assets to plummet everywhere should the Leave camp win. France could be plunged into disarray as the bitter response to the rather mild labour market reform creates further turmoil and widespread strikes.
In the US, many, like Blanchard and Krugman, have for long advocated a higher inflation target as a means of getting the economy ‘moving’.
UBS | US E&Ps cut capex by ~40% YoY in 2015 & are budgeted to cut >50% YoY this year. This has caused the US oil rig count to plunge from a peak of 1,609 in 2H14 to 328 (7- year low). But as spot WTI prices have moved from <$30/Bbl earlier this year to ~$46/Bbl currently, one of the key questions energy investors are asking is when will US E&Ps begin to add rigs?
Caixin | As two of the most significant economies driving global growth today, commentators often compare the emerging market behemoths, China and India. In recent times, the two countries have eclipsed Brazil, Russia and South Africa, their BRICS counterparts, in terms of economic growth. However, there are significant differences between the two Asian economies.
The president of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, Daniele Nouy, recently again expressed concerns about the profitability challenge faced by the European banks, suggesting mergers as a solution. This consolidation process is also on the cards in India.