US Economists Bark Up The Wrong Tree
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | There is a rough consensus among US macroeconomists that topics for discussion are the bad minimum wage, the virtues of free trade, and inflation.
World economy
You Gotta Roll With It
BARCLAYS | The oil price has recovered to ~$50/bbl and project execution has been better than we have come to expect from the European E&P sector. Those two points appear to have been enough to see many investors revisit the sector with more forward looking optimism in recent months and increasingly ascribe value to delivery of 2016 operational goals.
Vigilant Of Second Round Effects
BoAML | We have remained quite bearish on Euro area inflation for the past few years, particularly compared with ECB forecasts (but also consensus), and have highlighted the many downside risks to the inflation outlook.
China-U.S. Relations: Hostage To None
Hu Shuli via Caixin | The eighth session of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in Beijing on June 6 and 7 received more than the usual attention amid signs of increased tension between the two countries. In addition to tensions over disputed islands and reefs in the South China Sea, friction has been generated in recent months by China’s attempt to be recognized as a “market economy” and America’s…
US Close To Full Employment Not Recession
The latest jobs data from the US is the worst for six years: 38,000 jobs created in May compared to the 160,000 expected. The market slumped on the news of the bad figures, but Yellen played them down. She said “too much attention” should not be paid to one jobs report and that she was still in favour of raising rates.
The OECD Politely Asks For An End To Austerity
F. Barciela / F.G. Ljubetic |It was well known that the forecasts the OECD were going to present for 2016 and 2017 would be nothing to shout home about. But the figures and the tone of the comments made by Angel Gurria, secretary general of the organisation and Catherine Mann, its chief economist, turned out to be more dismal than expected.
US Shale Gas Should Resume Growth In 12 Months
BoAmL | After an astonishing 90% increase in spot WTI prices since mid-February, oil market participants are now starting to focus on the timeframe and magnitude of a potential recovery in US shale output. But US producers have yet to bring some rigs back, and oil drilling across in Canada and the US has continued to retrench in recent months.
US Jobs Data Dash Rate Hike Hopes
Disappointing job growth in May at roughly one-third of the expected figure, coupled with a downward revision for the previous two months, cast unexpected doubts on the US recovery. The labour market has slowed to half the pace seen a year ago.
Domestic Rivals Take Bite off Apple’s Share in China
Han Wei via Caixin | Apple Inc. is shifting gears and promoting new apps and services to rev up growth in China amid a slump in sales for its expensive devices as local brands nibble at its market share.
In a Post- Obama World
Jarno Lang | Obama is not only a pop-cultural phenomenon, but also a pragmatic leader. His successor will have to deal with a worldwide net of dependencies.