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In the World, World economy 4th August 2025

China’s manufacturing PMI returns to contraction territory, falling to 49.5 points in July

Bankinter | The Caixin manufacturing PMI returns to economic contraction territory (<50 points) after falling to 49.5 points in July (versus 50.4 expected and 50.4 previously). Bankinter analysis team view: The decline in activity reflects the loss of momentum in global trade due to the trade war and weak domestic demand in China. The manufacturing PMI has been in expansionary territory continuously from October 2024 to April 2025, but everything…

In the World, World economy 31st July 2025

IMF raises global growth forecast two tenths to 3% for 2025 and one tenth to 3.1% for 2026

Bankinter | Yesterday, the IMF revised its global GDP growth forecasts upwards for both 2025 to 3.0% year-on-year (from 2.8% in its April 2025 projection) and for 2026 to 3.1% (from 3.0% previously). By country, it made a general improvement in its forecasts for 2025 as tariff uncertainty cleared somewhat (US 1.9% versus 1.8% previously; EMU 1.0% versus 0.8% previously and Japan 0.7% versus 0.6% previously). The revision for China…

In the World, World economy 31st July 2025

US-China Trade talks conclude with no explicit decision

Link Securities | Trade negotiations between the US and China concluded on Tuesday, with negotiators suggesting that the meeting was productive but without making any major announcements. No explicit decision was taken, nor was a 90-day extension of the deadline for imposing tariffs agreed, which in China’s case is 12 August. In this regard, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that it is an option but that President Trump will make…

In the World, World economy 30th July 2025

Trump ‘probably’ to impose 15-20% tariff on countries that have not negotiated agreements

Link Securities | The digital portal Bolsamania.com reported that President Donald Trump has indicated that he will ‘probably’ implement a general tariff of between 15 and 20% on imports to the United States from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements. ‘For the world, I would say it will be somewhere between 15 and 20%… I just want to be nice,’ the president said during a press conference with…

In the World, World economy 29th July 2025

Oil likely to stabilise at $60 with surplus figures in 2H25

Morgan Stanley | Following expected strength during the summer, our analyst Martijn Rats believes that the market will return to surplus figures and that prices will continue to weaken in 2H25 to $60/bbl. Large inventories have been built up during 1H25, but only 10% of these are in OECD commercial centres. Therefore, the expert expects that throughout the summer, the price will remain stable in the face of a more…

In the World, World economy 24th July 2025

US imposes 15% tariffs on Japan in exchange for opening its agricultural and automotive markets to US companies

Link Securities | US President Donald Trump announced yesterday a trade agreement with Japan that will result in the imposition of 15% trade tariffs on Japanese imports, instead of the 25% tariffs announced in the initial letter. Government officials from both countries confirmed that this tariff reduction will also apply to automobiles. Trump said Japan agreed to open its agricultural and automotive markets to US companies. Bloomberg quoted a senior…

World economy 9th July 2025

OPEC+ agreement to increase production by 548,000 bpd in August to negatively affect prices

Bankinter | OPEC+ has agreed to increase production in August by 548,000 bpd. As a reference, in April, production increased by 138,000 bpd and 411,000 bpd in May, June and July. OPEC+ (including other countries such as Russia and Mexico) produces 41 Mbd (just over 40% of global supply). This increase will come from eight members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Analysis team’s view: The news…

World economy 4th July 2025

US and Vietnam reach trade agreement: 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports in exchange for full access to American market

Intermoney | Donald Trump announced yesterday that he had reached an agreement with Vietnam. The terms stipulate that Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% tariff on all goods exported to US territory and a 40% tariff on any transhipments, while in return, Vietnam will grant the United States full access to its commercial markets. Vietnam presented a particular challenge for the Trump administration, as some of the president’s…

World economy 3rd July 2025

US Senate approves Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” by 51 votes to 50

Bankinter | The Senate approved, by a narrow margin of 51 to 50, the stimulus package proposed by President Trump, known as “One Big Beautiful Bill”. The approval was only possible thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance, after three Republican senators joined the Democratic opposition. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The package, which now goes to a new vote in Congress, provides for extending and making permanent…

World economy 2nd July 2025

China PMIs exceed expectations: 49.7 in manufacturing, 50.5 in non-manufacturing and 50.7 in composite index

Bankinter | China’s PMIs slightly exceeded expectations. Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 versus 49.6 expected; Non-manufacturing PMI: 50.5 versus 49.6 expected; Composite PMI: 50.7 versus 50.4 previously. Bankinter analysis team’s view: These figures point to a positive outlook in the short term, with industrial production growing month-on-month and demand rising for the first time in three months. However, in the medium term, the deterioration in employment and the end of the trade…

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