World politics

trump and xi

Markets Shrug Off Sino-US Tensions

Yves Bonzon (Julius Baer)| The tensions between Washington and Beijing seem to be increasing almost every day. After the US administration ratcheted up its criticism of China’s response to the coronavirus outbreak, trade tensions have again heated up. News has emerged that China would like to renegotiate the phase-1 trade agreement signed earlier this year as it is increasingly viewed as unfair domestically. This has categorically been ruled out by US President Donald Trump.


sicilian mafia godfather

Eating Alone

Keith Godfrey | “You eat alone, you choke” is an ancient proverb with origins lost in the mists of time. In Mafia circles it expresses their family centred, ruthless sense of unity and purpose and celebrates tight-knit self-propelling interest. And yet, as we know even in the best regulated Mafia families every now and then those interests can pull in different directions. When that happens, the family member breaking ranks is said to “eating alone”. The implication is that bad things will soon follow. And worst of all, whether from lack of protection or because of overzealous protection from outside parties, eating alone makes for bad business.


This is how ancient Rome’s republic died – a classicist sees troubling parallels at Trump’s impeachment trial

“Donald Trump would like to be a Dictator,” says George Soros

Soros was speaking in an interview entitled The Crisis of a Lifetime with the journalist and author Gregor Peter Schmidtz, published by Project Syndicate. He argues that “Donald Trump would like to be a dictator” but cannot because there is a constitution in the United states that people still respect though “that doesn’t mean he will not try”. “I put my faith in Trump to destroy himself, and he has exceeded my wildest expectations”.


coronavirus china

The Week That Was: Some Are Taking Back Control, Others Are Stranded In Iowa

Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | Policymakers in China made a credible move in their attempt to regain control over the current situation. After injecting liquidity into financial markets, they announced the potential for a cure/vaccination available soon and later cut some tariffs on US imports. Fear-stricken markets took a sigh of relief.


US 2020 election outcomes you're not watching

US 2020 Election Outcomes You’re Not Watching

This article focuses on the 2020 US Election, which formally kicks off next week with the February 3 Iowa Caucuses. In this piece, experts at BNY Mellon Daniel Tenengauzer and John Velis explore how markets may react as political events unfold in the run-up to November 3.





Hong Kong protests

Hong Kong protests: threat to regional stability

Shaun Riordan │ The Hong Kong protests have now entered their tenth week. Over the weekend protestors are reported to have fought running battles with the police in the Metro system. The police have had recourse to batons and tear gas. The dangers for Hong Kong´s political and economic future are clear. But the dangers are much broader than Hong Kong. Markets should be watching carefully.


The economic cold war between the US and China is here to stay

The Economic Cold War Between The US And China Is Here To Stay

The prospect of a settlement to the conventional elements of the trade war is helping sentiment. As discussed by Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington Equities in Asia, it is in everybody’s interest to settle the tariff issue. However, the policies aimed (perhaps quixotically) at trying to limit Chinese growth, are very much still on the table. The issues over Huawei are perhaps the most visible aspect of this, but it does introduce a level of policy-dependent idiosyncratic risk for portfolios.