Shaun Riordan | Is there a Manchurian candidate in the White House? While the US people decide who Trump is, Europe must decide whether it wants to be a player in the geopolitical chess game, or the chessboard on which others play.
Andressa Tezine (Fidelity) | The sharp fall in Argentina´s bonds and international shares, after President Macri´s surprise defeat in Argentine primary elections, could spread to other Latin American and emerging markets while investors look to re-balance their positions.
Shaun Riordan │ The Hong Kong protests have now entered their tenth week. Over the weekend protestors are reported to have fought running battles with the police in the Metro system. The police have had recourse to batons and tear gas. The dangers for Hong Kong´s political and economic future are clear. But the dangers are much broader than Hong Kong. Markets should be watching carefully.
The prospect of a settlement to the conventional elements of the trade war is helping sentiment. As discussed by Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington Equities in Asia, it is in everybody’s interest to settle the tariff issue. However, the policies aimed (perhaps quixotically) at trying to limit Chinese growth, are very much still on the table. The issues over Huawei are perhaps the most visible aspect of this, but it does introduce a level of policy-dependent idiosyncratic risk for portfolios.
A recession is triggered when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters. One or two negative readings about GDP may make little sense. But when it is various key indicators which are beginning flash red for a prolonged period, the image becomes clearer and more significant. In opinion of D. Spence y J. Franz, this moment has still not arrived in the US.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Donald Trump could nominate Herman Cain, an eccentric businessman who has accumulated various scandals and a questionable economic baggage, as a board member of the Federal Reserve. Cain is famous for having directed the El Padrino pizza chain and also for having been a senior executive at Burger King.
The crimes of the III Reich, product of Adolf Hitler, still horrify. But no-one remembers the II Reich, whose Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck, is no less execrable than his successor, at least outside Europe. We can thank proofs like “Guilt and Debt” of the German Dierk Schmidt, exhibited at the Velazquez Palace (Madrid) until 10 March.
Leonardo Vivas | Until January this year, Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s strongman, seemed to have overcome all the obstacles in his battle for political survival. But after a few years preaching in the wilderness, the country’s democratic forces found a new energy with Juan Guaidó.
Chandra Roy | There are two kinds populism. The first, those who have fought against the established patriarchy and rampant racism which has unfortunately contaminated our species. The second kind is the new under capped factions fighingt against the very principle of favouritism which was initially endeavoured to be eradicated by the first wave of populism.
Steven Pressman via The Conversation | Perhaps the biggest surprise in the midterm elections was that, unlike 2016, there wasn’t one. Polls and pundits expected Democrats would take control of the House and Republicans would keep the Senate, and that’s exactly what we’re getting. The likely result: two years of congressional gridlock on economic policy, which requires both houses of Congress to agree on the same legislation. So, we can expect that the status quo on economic policy will mostly prevail.