Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | About 700 small steel mills, with 140 million tons of steel capacity deemed sub-standard, have shut down since 2016. Another 150 million tons of inefficient capacity at larger firms has also gone. However, steel production continues to climb, outpacing demand
Christian Nolting (Deutsche Bank) | The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries peaked in mid-June, then fell sharply in July before rising again in August. The decline for Treasuries with shorter maturities was less pronounced in July, causing the yield curve to invert, which many investors regard as a precursor to recession. We forecast that the U.S. economy will enter a mild recession in H1 2023. Whereas growth concerns have been…
Santander : Record primary issuance in August (€60 billion), 43% higher than the previous record in 2018, which is starting to drag down secondary issuance, also affected by attractive NIPs. In fact, €22.5bn was issued on Tuesday and Wednesday alone in what is set to be the highest volume in a week since May. The fear of more frontloading, even in less stable markets, is also a matter of concern…
Morgan Stanley | In reality, during H1 2022 the market was already discounting the FED and the toughening of financial conditions. So we do not see the FED as an additional risk: the biggest risk we see is the declines in future profits. In this respect, our advance profits’ model projects a significant drop in EPS growth over the coming months. A key input in this model is the ISM…
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | In his second term, President Joko Widodo has continued to tackle economic reforms, such as infrastructure improvement to support the manufacturing sector and digital economy, reforms of the labour market and foreign investment rules. However, some key elements of his policy agenda remain contested due to vested interests. While Widodo has broad support in the House of Representatives, the wide range of political groups in…
Renta 4 | Germany and Canada are negotiating an investment of 2 billion euros in the Saint John LNG regasification plant, owned by Repsol. The aim is to be able to export gas to Europe to reduce dependence on Russia, according to press reports. The Canadian Environment Minister has indicated that Repsol’s plant would be the one which could most quickly make the deployment, as it already has the infrastructure…
IFO Institute | For many key technologies, such as battery technology, robotics, and renewables, Germany is dependent on imports of raw materials – often from individual supplier countries like China. “Urgent action is required to ensure that the supply chains for nine critical minerals – cobalt, boron, silicon, graphite, magnesium, lithium, niobium, rare earths, titanium – are crisis-proof. Additional sources of supply are needed to make the supply chains more…
José Ramón Díez (Caixabank Research) | The global economic scenario continues to face the effects of a triple shock on global supply (bottlenecks, war and zero-COVID policy) which is keeping commodity prices strained, continues to erode confidence among economic agents and has sent alarm bells ringing in the financial markets, with increased volatility and sharp price corrections. In spite of all the above and the scarcity of information published for…
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) | With the Fed persisting on raising rates in the next several months after its jumbo 75bps rate hike and Asian inflation accelerating, Asian central banks that choose to hold rates or trail the Fed substantially are de-prioritizing the inflation fight by letting their FX weakens versus the USD, absorbing more inflationary pressures on the import side. With Southeast Asia demand normalizing, supply shocks lingering, inflationary pressures…
Thomas Lehr (Flossbach von Storch) | Equities are under pressure ‒ worldwide. The US market has also crossed a closely monitored mark. But there is also some good news. The 2022 stock-market year got off to a promising start. On the very first day of trading, the S&P 500 equity index marked the highest closing price in its history at 4,796.56 points. For most investors, however, that is all there…