Bankinter | The aggregate Infrastructure portfolio is up 7% since December 2024 and has reached a new all-time high. Nordex’s portfolio and profitability are growing. The turbine subsidiary’s portfolio is 12% higher than in December and the EBITDA margin reaches 5.7% compared to 4.1% in 2024. These improvements are reflected in Nordex’s share price, which is up 87% for the year.
In the Real Estate division, the value of assets (GAV) rose 8% compared to December and the pre-sales portfolio rose another 4%. These improvements will allow the contribution of these divisions to the group’s EBITDA to grow at double digits in 2026, driving growth in Acciona’s results.
On the other hand, the pace of growth at Acciona Energía will moderate. Operating EBITDA this year will remain at similar levels to 2024, and it will be difficult to see significant growth by 2026. On the one hand, capturing an average price above the €60/MWh estimated for 2025 will be a complicated task. Futures and most long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) are close to this level. On the other hand, a more conservative investment policy could make it difficult to achieve an increase in consolidated production next year that would offset the loss of generation due to the sale of assets. As for our recommendation, after a 57% rise in the year, we maintain our Neutral view.
The stock market performance so far this year has been very positive, helped by the strong performance of Nordex and the infrastructure division, the recovery of the pool price in Spain, the ECB’s rate cuts – which benefit companies with strong investment plans and high debt levels such as Acciona – and asset sales – which help to reduce leverage. From here on, we see fewer catalysts that could significantly boost the share price and more limited upside potential. We set the new target price at €179.00/share, with an upside potential of 8% from current levels.
