Intermoney | Aena (AENA) (Hold, Target Price €24) announced its passenger traffic figures for July 2025 on Tuesday after the market closed.
The figures for Spain showed an increase of 2.7% last month, exceeding 32 million passengers, of which nearly 12 million were distributed between Barajas and El Prat, which increased their figures by slightly less than 1% and almost 3%, respectively. Among the other major airports, Malaga (8%) and Alicante (6%) stood out. Others, such as Palma and Ibiza, recorded traffic levels virtually unchanged from July 2024. So far this year, traffic is up 4.1%, with Barajas growing one point less and El Prat in line with that percentage. Among Aena’s other assets, Brazil is up 6% and Luton 5%.
Assessment: No surprises in last month’s figures, which saw a continuation of the expected slowdown in growth from the double digits we saw a year ago. All in all, we are now seeing increases of less than 3%, which means that our forecast for the year as a whole of 4% is not exactly conservative. On 26 June, we downgraded our recommendation to Hold despite raising the target price to €24 from €21.5, given the recent strong performance of the stock, with the market now adequately valuing the stability of the company’s operations. We then increased our EBITDA forecast for ’25-’27 by 3%, implying 10% CAGR ’24-’27. The operator published its H1 figures on 30 July, showing EBITDA growth of +9% to €1.692 billion.
