Deutsche Bank | Last week, news reports indicated that Ryanair would reduce its winter capacity at regional airports in Spain by 40% and in the Canary Islands by 10%. In this context, our analysis of Diio Mi seat capacity for nine key airports (approximately 80% of Aena’s Spanish traffic in 2024) shows that the cuts will be more widespread; for example, IAG Group domestic seats (including Iberia and Vueling) are down 9.3% (November 2025 to March 2026), compared to Ryanair’s 6.4% decline, with a total for all airlines of 5.3%. We also note that, in the case of Madrid and Barcelona, historical reductions in domestic seats have also weighed on international seat growth, even pushing it into negative territory. We do not believe this is solely a reaction to 2026 fares; the 6.5% increase will take effect from March 2026, so capacity reductions in winter (November 2025-March 2026) seem a little premature. We see the capacity cuts as evidence of the imbalance between supply and demand; in our January note, we argued that lower seat occupancy is typically followed by lower capacity growth. Aena’s traffic growth correlates with the EU competitiveness index, which is currently declining.
Beyond noise surrounding Aena-Ryanair dispute: capacity cuts are also proof of imbalance between supply and demand
