Intermoney | EDPR (Buy, Target Price €14) will announce its Q1 2026 results on Wednesday 6 May before the market opens, holding a presentation at 16:30. The key figures from our forecasts can be found in the attached table. We expect EBITDA to have risen by 3% compared to Q1 2025 to €492m, driven mainly by the previously reported 3% increase in production, despite the challenging comparison with 2025, the absence of inventory turnover effects and unfavourable forex movements. By market, we do not expect any major differences on this occasion. We estimate a net profit of €55m, where a higher minority interest would limit the year-on-year increase to 6%. We have raised our forecasts slightly (by 2%) following the annual results, although we continue to estimate an EBITDA CAGR of 6% for 2025–2028.
We confirm our Buy recommendation on EDPR, as well as our target price of €14, which we lowered from €15 in November, effective 26 December. This reduction was a consequence of reflecting EDPR’s new growth strategy, centred on lower net investments and a focus on North America, once regulatory uncertainties had been clarified. In this note, we have raised our EBITDA forecasts by 2% following the strong full-year results for 2025, having previously lowered them by an average of 6% for 2025–2027 in November. Meanwhile, debt ratios are expected to fall to 3x by 2028, bringing us in line with the company’s guidance. We believe that the modest growth rates (6% CAGR 25–27) are achievable, so we do not expect any negative surprises in the future. The implied valuation multiples, at around €1.1 million/MW in 26–27, are not particularly demanding.
