Renta 4 | Indra (IDR): Q3 2025 results fall short of operating forecasts. 2025 guidance maintained. Strong increase expected in the defence portfolio for 2026. Investor Day in Q2 26.
Results fell short of estimates at the operating level and our estimates for net profit (above consensus). Ordinary income €1,162 million (-3% versus Renta 4 estimate, -4% versus consensus and +6% versus Q3 24), EBIT, main figure, €109 million (-11% versus Renta 4 estimate, -5% versus consensus, -2% versus Q3 24), EBITDA €140 million (-10% versus and in line with Q3 24) and net profit €77 million (versus €81 million Renta 4 estimate, €74 million consensus and €70 million in Q3 24) with financial result: -€5.4 million (versus -€8 million Renta 4 estimate) and tax rate: -24% (versus -29% Renta 4 estimate and Q2 24).
By division, in Defence, revenue +8.5% versus Q3 24 to €245 million (versus €267 million Renta 4 estimate), EBIT €43 million (versus €56 million Renta 4 estimate and EBIT margin 17.7% (Renta 4 estimate 21% and -4.9 pp versus Q3 24), in Air Traffic, revenues in line versus 3Q 24 to €106 million (versus €117 million Renta 4 estimate), EBIT €14 million (versus €15 million Renta 4 estimate) and EBIT margin 13.7% (Renta 4 estimate 13% and +0.6 pp versus 3Q 24), Mobility revenues +2.5% versus Q3 24 to €86 million (Renta 4 estimate €88 million), EBIT €3 million (Renta 4 estimate €4.6 million) and EBIT margin 3.4% (Renta 4 estimate 5.2% and -2.3 pp versus Q3 24) and Minsait (IT), Revenue €725 million (versus €728 million Renta 4 estimate) +6.5% versus 3Q 24 and +8.6% excluding currency, EBIT €48 million (Renta 4 estimate €47 million) and EBIT margin 6.7% (Renta 4 estimate 6.5% and +0.6 pp versus 3Q 24).
New business grows in 9M 25: +20% versus 9M 24 (+22% excluding currency), with strong performance in all divisions except Minsait. Defence: +47% and +47% excluding currency, Air Traffic: +57% and +59% excluding currency, Mobility: +10% and +13%, and Minsait: +6.7% (+9.4% excluding currency). The order book (a precursor to future revenues) grew +35% versus 9M 24 (+36% excluding currency) and reached new all-time highs at €9,512 million (+0.4% versus 2Q 25), which includes €1,476 million from the acquisition of TESS, offering great visibility for revenue generation. Following the award of PEM financing, Indra expects to exceed €10 billion in defence portfolio during 2026e, more than double that of 3Q 25 (€4.745 billion).
Indra consumed -€8 million in cash (versus Renta 4 estimate +€77 million) supported by operational performance, higher investment in working capital -€98 million (Renta 4 estimate -€30 million) and capex -€27 million (Renta 4 estimate -€30 million). Taking into account the payment of -€54 million for acquisitions, net debt increased to €113.6 million, at very conservative EBITDA multiples (0.2x). We highlight its favourable liquidity position: €417 million (excluding factoring) and additional credit lines worth €790 million (€404 million in 2Q25), with a maturity schedule for the next three years (€16 million in 2025e, €141 million in 2026e and €65 million in 2027e).
Management has maintained its 2025e targets. The 2025e guidance targets are: Revenue > €5.2 billion, implying > +6% versus 2024 (+8.0% in 9M 25 versus 9M 24), EBIT > €490 million, implying > +11.9% versus 2023 (+9.6% in 9M 25 versus 9M 24) and FCF > €300 million (€57 million in 9M 25, with a large contribution expected in 4Q 25e).
Results that have fallen short of forecasts at the operating level, maintaining the high growth rate in both Contracting and Order Book versus 1H 25, exceeding forecasts at the operating level and leading them to maintain the 2025e guidance. The forecast for the defence order book (€10 billion estimated in 2026) reflects the high market expectations discounted in the share price. We expect a negative impact on the share price.
Investor Day announced in 2Q 26e.
