Morgan Stanley | George Webb (analyst) initiates coverage of Amadeus with an Overweight (OW) rating, as he believes long-term appeal outweighs short-term uncertainties. In his scenario, the conflict in the Middle East (and the associated dynamics of energy prices) will weigh on Amadeus’s growth until the end of the year, implying a moderate cut to FY26 guidance as the base case.
He acknowledges the long-term structural debates surrounding disintermediation via direct connections and the impact of AI, but believes that Amadeus retains lasting relevance thanks to its optimised GDS network, its deep knowledge of the travel sector and the high degree of integration of its systems. It views the current multiple of 12.9x adjusted FY27 P/E as attractive in the context of EPS growth of around 9% in FY28, and its target price of €64 implies upside potential of 31%.
