Repsol production falls 3.2% in Q2’22 (540.000 b/d); but refining margins continue recovery


Renta 4 | On Thursday after the market’s close, Repsol published operating figures for Q2’22, during which the price of Brent (113,9 USD/b) rose 65.1% year-on-year and 11.4% quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile the price of gas (7,2 USD/Mbtu) was up 157.1% year-on-year and 44% quarter-on-quarter.

We recall that in its guidelines for 2022, the Spanish oil and gas group considers levels of 70 USD/b and 3,7 USD/Mtbu, and that the sensitivity to the price of Brent is +540 million euros in operating CF for every 10 USD rise in the barrel price. Meanwhile in the case of Henry Hub, its +164 million euros for every 0,5 USD of an increase. The dollar has appreciated 5.4% year-on-year and 12.4% vs Q2’21.

As far as production goes, 540.000 b/d (-3.2% year-on-year and -3.7% vs Q2’21), compared with the guideline for the year of 600.000 b/d. Refining margins continue to recover, going from 1,5 USD/b in Q2’21 to 23,3 USD/b in Q2’22, +242.6% vs Q1’22 and compared to the guideline for the year of 4 USD/b. In this respect, the sensitivity is +92 million euros for every 0,5 USD of increase in the refining margin.

The full Q2’22 results will be released on July 28. They will reflect the positive impact of higher crude and gas prices, as well as by greater refining margins.

Positive valuation.

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