Intermoney | Sacyr (Buy, Target Price €4.80 from €4.60) will announce its results for the year to 26 March next Wednesday, 29 April, holding a conference call the following day at 12 noon.
We expect the Group to have continued its trend of stabilising accounting EBITDA, whereby the lower contribution from the Pedemontana Veneta (PV) motorway and the sale of Colombian assets would be offset by a higher contribution from other new projects in Italy, and some growth in the construction of its own projects. Accounting EBITDA is estimated to have remained stable at €302m (Intermoney estimate).
Operating cash flow would likely have risen by at least 6% to around €255m (Intermoney estimate). Depreciation and financial costs should have remained more or less stable, leading to a net profit that is slightly higher (up 7%) at €29m. We are raising our estimates slightly (by 2%) following the 2025 annual figures. The disposal of assets in Colombia, with an impact of €170m, would reduce this line by an estimated 6% in 2026.
Sacyr (Buy, Target Price €4.8) – Growth in Concessions, which are beginning to generate cash as they come into service. We confirm our Buy recommendation on Sacyr, whilst raising our target price to €4.8, effective December 2026, from the previous €4.6. Although the stock offers little upside potential at current prices, we believe that the market, despite current uncertainties, should continue to reward aspects such as: 1) the asset rotation policy, with the flagship Voreantis project, which will consolidate a large portion of the mature concession assets by 2026; 2) net debt levels that we consider reasonable given the overall consolidation of the concessions, which are beginning to generate net cash flow after coming into service; 3) the Group will gradually increase cash generation over the coming financial years, until it converges with and ultimately clearly exceeds the EBITDA figure; and 4) guaranteed returns on most concession projects, which act as a hedge against inflation for revenues.
