Bankinter: We maintain Caixabank in our 5 Stocks Model Portfolio because it enjoys a good momentum in profitability/RoTE with an attractive shareholder remuneration plan. The factors that explain our strategic preference for the Catalan bank are: (1) Profitability/RoTE remains at a high level (16.9%), with a low risk profile and an efficiency ratio (costs/revenues) at historically low levels (39.2% in 9M 2024). (2) Credit quality ratios are good and the shareholder remuneration policy is attractive. (3) 9M 2024 figures confirm that pressure on margins is starting to emerge, but commercial activity is increasing with a low Cost of Risk/CoR (0.28%). (4) NPL ratio is contained (2.69%) and compares positively with the sector average (3.44% in Spain). (5) The CET1 capital ratio remains at a comfortable level (CET1 ~12.24% against 12.22% in 2Q 2024) and allows maintaining an attractive remuneration policy for shareholders.
It should be recalled that the 2022/2024 strategic plan envisaged a total remuneration target of ~€12,000m and, according to our estimates, the remuneration foreseen for 2025/2027 (dividends plus share buybacks) would be around €15,000m (up 25.0% on the previous plan), equivalent to close on 40% of its capitalisation.