High probability of a positive fourth quarter: Ibex 35’s 7% cushion

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Renta 4: We continue with positive statistics, this time suggesting a positive fourth quarter, as we can see in the two charts below. The first chart looks at the occasions when a momentum indicator registers certain positive parameters, noting that 2, 6 and 12 months later there have been positive performances by the S&P500. The second shows that when the S&P500 has not recorded monthly declines of more than 5% during the year, on all but one occasion the fourth quarter has been bullish.

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The Ibex 35’s forceful overcoming of the March highs until August, between 11,150 and 11,450 points, leaves this level as a future support for possible corrections. The current distance to this zone is 7%, widening with the passage of the upward trend line from the lows of October 2022, currently at 10,800 points, to a 9.5% fall. There is a comfortable cushion for the Spanish selective index, above which the bullish momentum continues in full force:

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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.