Santiago Martínez Morando, Head of Economic and Financial Analysis at Ibercaja | According to preliminary data, CPI growth rebounded in Spain to 2.4% year-on-year in November from 1.8% in October and the low of 1.5% reached in September, which was the lowest level since March 2021. The CPI is still very much determined by the volatility of energy prices, and the National Statistics Institute (INE) points to the acceleration being due to electricity and fuel prices, when the latter had had a downward influence in recent months. In this respect, the more stable core rate moderated by one tenth of a percentage point in November, to 2.4% year-on-year, equalling the level of September, which was the lowest since January 2022. Moreover, if we look at the monthly change in the core rate, it was below the historical average for the same month for the third consecutive month, which points to a continuation of the reduction in inflationary pressures. When the breakdown of the data is published, we will see whether the prices of hotel and catering services, which were the ones that had maintained the highest increases once the rise in food prices had slowed down (after having reached levels more than 30% higher than before the pandemic), decelerated. In the coming months, price growth is expected to continue at levels close to, but slightly above, the central bank’s targets, due to the dynamism of consumption and wages and the additional pressure that may be exerted by the undervaluation of the euro, which makes imports more expensive and has become more acute after Trump’s victory.
Monthly changes compared with the average for the same month over the previous twenty years:
