Morgan Stanley | Our analyst Martijn Rats notes that the US has gone further than expected on new sanctions on the Russian oil industry, which has driven up downside risk to oil supply, at least temporarily. This has led the strategist to slightly increase his forecast for Brent to $77.5/bbl in 1Q25 (vs. $72/bbl previously) and $75/bbl in 2Q25 (vs. $70/bbl previously). In this context, it is worth noting once again the UW recommendation on Repsol, which, among the European integrated companies, has the highest exposure to refining margins, which have maintained a downward trend in line with pre-covid normalised levels. In addition, despite the update, oil price expectations remain weak, which could lead to a reduction in the buyback programme.
