Bankinter | OPEC agrees to increase production in June by 411,000bd. As a reference, in April OPEC increased its production by 138,000bd and 411,000bd in May. Therefore, it introduces this amount for the second consecutive month. OPEC has the objective of bringing 2.2Mbd to market and, if this increase is maintained, it would achieve its objective in September this year, compared to July 2026, as predicted in April. As a reference, OPEC+ (including other countries such as Russia and Mexico) produces 41Mbd (slightly more than 40% of global supply).
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Negative news for several reasons: (i) OPEC recently presented its global demand estimates and they included a reduction. They estimate that demand will increase 1.3mbd in 2025 and 1.28mbd in 2026 (approx. 1.2% of global supply each year), in both cases a reduction of -0.150mbd compared to the previous estimate. Therefore, the measure combines lower demand and higher production. (ii) It highlights the strong divergence of views within OPEC and is a response to several countries that are producing in excess of their quotas. The most striking one is Kazakhstan, but also Iran. Moreover, we believe that this tension between them will become more acute in the coming months, given that a scenario of price moderation, due to economic slowdown (tariffs and Chinese weakness), the rise of clean energy and greater efficiency, will lead members to try to produce more to compensate for this fall in prices. As a reference, in the last week the price of Brent crude oil fell by 11%.
