Link Securities | According to a report yesterday by Dow Jones, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its estimate for oil supply growth next year for both the US and other competitors, while maintaining its oil demand expectations unchanged as it continues to increase production.
OPEC now expects supply from non-OPEC+ producers to increase by 730,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared to 800,000 barrels per day in its previous estimate. It therefore projects that US oil production will increase by 210,000 barrels per day, compared with previous expectations of an increase of 280,000 barrels per day, reflecting lower capital investment and a slowdown in drilling activity.
Meanwhile, OPEC’s forecast for global oil demand growth remained virtually unchanged at 1.29 million barrels per day this year and 1.28 million barrels per day next year, driven by strong demand for air travel and good road mobility. OPEC also kept its global economic growth estimates stable, noting that while trade-related distortions are expected to ease, some tariff risks could persist.
OPEC’s total crude oil production increased by 183,000 barrels per day to 27.02 million barrels per day last month, driven by Saudi Arabia. In turn, total production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC, the official name of OPEC+) increased by 180,000 barrels per day to 41.23 million barrels per day.
