The Spanish tether already seems overstretched. On Monday, the national institute for statistics published fresh data confirming a forecast released days before by the country’s central bank, which warned of a contracting GDP: at -0.4 percent, records for the second quarter of the year were indeed 0.1 percent worse than for the first three months. Private consumption and investment have fallen, year on year rates of industrial prices have risen…
Economist Ricardo R. Reis expects “better policymaking from the European authorities now.” Originally from Portugal, Reis teaches at Columbia University, he is a former graduate from the London School of Economics and Harvard Ph.D and has worked extensively on inflation dynamics and monetary and fiscal policy, including evaluation of fiscal stimulus programs. He gives his take on the current economic turmoil for our readers in the first of a summer…
MADRID | Irritation is high in Madrid for partners’ lack of support in enforcing a curfew, let alone a truce, in the raging battle it holds against overwhelming market forces. As leaders go on holiday they leave Spanish assets exposed to utter onslaught. The massive sell-out of sovereigns, securities and shares cannot continue for long without throttling any chance of survival by the time Brussels returns to normal business. Desperate attempts…
MADRID | The extensive sell-out on Friday shows the desperate situation Spain is facing. Shattered confidence on the government ability to overcome a looming crash landing, is sending shivers down the spine of investors. People are starting to bet Spain will be forced to bailout one of these days. But, unlike other salvaged countries, its sheer size prevents a rescue package from providing a way out in soothing its woes….
MADRID | Most observers take for granted that the rescue seems the most likely scenario. They simply look at the rising trend risk premium shows. They may be right. But the right question to ask is why confidence on Spain is faltering so much.
While waiting for the changes the European rescue fund needs to introduce in order to recapitalise the banking sector directly, especially the Spanish one, JP Morgan’s global equity department has made an interesting answer-question list with the main doubts that everybody could have concerning this instrument. The starting point could be the role of the European Financial Stability Facility /European Stability Mechanism until the last European Summit. Up to that…
Depicted more often than not these days as the number 1 enemy of the global economic recovery, even we at The Corner cannot help but wonder the big what-if question: couldn't the European Monetary Union just manage to orderly dismantle itself before it causes further damages? After checking the figures from the Review of the International Role of the Euro paper by the European Central Bank, the answer is that…
Luis Martí, in Madrid | It stands for Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer. TARGET2 is a key payment mechanism to European monetary union because it allows all transactions denominated in the common currency to be implemented as easily between member countries as within one country. Otherwise, it would be difficult to talk about common currency. Since the effects and implications of this mechanism are the subject of heated controversy,…
how can i get back with my ex This year's edition of the rencontres économiques, which the French Cércle de Économistes hosts in Aix-en-Provence since 2001, was condemned to debate the worrying health of the euro zone. The subject might have ruined the weekend when it took place, from July 6, though that didn't happen, probably because there is little coincidence in the fact that this economists' lobby seeks no common…
how can i get my ex girlfriend back LONDON | Will the trick of cutting the European Central Bank's deposit rate pay off? Everyone had noticed the extremely high levels of cash European banks left with the central entity for a mild profit in exchange of, well, nothing from their part. Particularly after the ECB made liquidity available, via its long-term refinancing operations, it was clear that the European banks…