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Spain's economy real recovery

Markets 30th August 2016

Why are the markets not reflecting Spain’s political risk?

Alarm bells are sounding across Europe over the possibility of Spain being a year without a government. Even the international press is calling for an end to the political deadlock in its editorials. But the concern has yet to reach the markets: the day before the start of a new investiture process in Spain, which could end in failure, the country’s risk premium remained below 100 basis points and the Ibex 35 blue-chip index lost hardly any ground, in line with the performance of its European peers.

 

Nigel Farage

In Europe 8th July 2016

Ukip’s Sinister Double Bill And Failed Political Leadership

Until early this year it seemed unlikely that an extreme idea lingering for two decades on the political fringe could turn into a mainstream choice preferred by majority of British voters as happened on June 23. Ukip’s leader Nigel Farage declared victory: he has for decades championed leaving the European Union but that was only half of his political double bill.

Brexit is not about compromise

In Europe 8th July 2016

From Berlin to Brexit

Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | “So, you are here?” said the check-in attendant at Berlin’s Tegel Airport. The man, who appeared to have a Somali background, had a charming smile. His comment was in reference to my British passport and the fact the UK was holding its Leave/Remain referendum on the same day.

madrid stock exchange

Ibex 28th June 2016

Brexit Is Calling The Shots; PP Victory Leaves The Ibex Fairly Cold

The rise in the Ibex 35 in the first few minutes of Monday’s session, when it rose 3% to over 8,000 points could not last. And it didn’t. Half an hour after the market opened, it began its downward spiral once again towards the 7,700 level. It lost over 2% and stayed there almost until the close, with the fall mirrored in the rest of the European exchanges.

Rajoy

Spanish Politics 27th June 2016

Rajoy Could Govern But With Conditions

Yesterday Spaniards voted again six months after the last general elections on proposals which had changed very little; the only relevant novelty was the integration of Izquierda Unida (IU) and Podemos which in the end turned out to be irrelevant. The new/old left has not gained anything obtaining the same number of seats and votes as in December, when IU ran on its own.

iberdrole

Spanish Politics 25th June 2016

Spanish Electricity Companies, Still Worried Ahead Of 26-J

The three big electricity companies in the Ibex 35 index, Iberdrola, Fenosa Gas Naural and Endesa are holding their breath ahead of the outcome of Sunday’s general elections. The years under the PP government have been overall difficult for them and the group, also called the Oligopoly, has a list of outstanding claims and petitions for which a solution will be difficult to find if Spain’s next government is left-wing.

Brexit takes toll on UK's international clout

In Europe 24th June 2016

Brexit: Into The Unknown …

Shaun Riordan | The British have voted decisively to leave the EU. The demographics of the referendum suggest that ordinary voters wanted to give the metropolitan elite kicking. For the British, this was their Trump moment. But now begin the months and years of uncertainty. This is not a single event which markets can price in, but rather a process which will continue to drive volatility in currency and equity markets for the foreseeable future.

China's monetary transition

World economy 19th June 2016

China By The Numbers

UBS | Economic data points to stabilization, but manufacturing and private investment weakened further. FAI growth’s disappointing slide to 7.5%y/y was mostly dragged down by a high base, weaker property investment, and sharper weakening of manufacturing.

economic challenges

World economy 8th June 2016

China-U.S. Relations: Hostage To None

Hu Shuli via Caixin | The eighth session of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in Beijing on June 6 and 7 received more than the usual attention amid signs of increased tension between the two countries. In addition to tensions over disputed islands and reefs in the South China Sea, friction has been generated in recent months by China’s attempt to be recognized as a “market economy” and America’s…

spain elections

Spanish economy 4th May 2016

Spain Returns To The Polls: Fiscal Consolidation, Catalonia Key Challenges

AXA IM | Four months after the elections, negotiations to form a government officially failed and new elections will be organised on 26 June. However, it remains very unclear that their outcome will be more favourable, though probably conducive to a government as a third round of elections would be a tremendous failure. Fiscal consolidation and Catalonia’s independence will be top priorities.