J.P.Marín Arrese | The Bank of England will provide direct cash to cover public expenses. Under the Ways and Means Facility, it already offers short-term liquidity to the Treasury. But, from now on, it will finance all budgetary commitments monetising the massive deficit the coronavirus crisis will bring about. Governor Andrew Bailey openly rejected this step a few days ago. Now, faced with the appalling evidence that a sharp increase in spending coupled with plummeting tax revenues will lead to substantial public imbalances, he has changed his mind.
Bank of England
Ranko Berich (Monex Europe) | The macroeconomic policy orthodoxy of the past 30 years will likely lie in ruins by the end of today, as the Bank of England and Treasury embark on synchronized monetary and fiscal easing on an unprecedented scale. The timing and size of the move from the BoE come as a surprise to markets, and seem calculated to send a clear message of policy synchronization.
The Bank of England has indicated that the pace of interest rate increases could accelerate if the economy remains on its current track. You have to wonder what the eminent experts on the MPC drink in their tea to be so off course about the current track of the UK economy.
James Alexander | Not quite the line you will see across most of the market or amongst so-called monetarist economists. In fact, implied by actual nominal growth and expectations for nominal growth monetary policy is too tight. Nominal GDP growth is running at 3.7% YoY and falling, while the best measure of inflation around, the implied GDP deflator is running just below 2%.
James Alexander via Historinhas | In a “currency war” it pays to be the loser. If you need an expansionary monetary policy, like most currency blocs today, don’t let anyone undercut with dirty devaluations. So, when a big baby like China decides to lower the value of its currency versus the biggest baby of all, the USD, make sure you are not caught in the cross fire.
James Alexander via Historinhas | The Bank of England published its quarterly Inflation Report for November 2015 last week. The fact that the BoE is missing its 2% inflation target by more than 1% set in train the usual mini-flurry of letters to and from their political masters at the UK finance ministry, aka The Treasury. While reading the Treasury reply I spotted that there had been an “evolution in UK monetary policy”, I was forced to read on.
UBS | The announcement of the policy decision at midday on Thursday will also include the minutes to the meeting, alongside the publication and press conference for the August Inflation Report. This will make for more transparency, but will mean a lot of information for the market to digest in one go.
The Corner | February 28, 2015 | The fall in oil prices may yet push the Bank of England to raise rates, which it has been keeping at 0.5% since March 2009. It currently owns the equivalent of 25% of UK’s nominal GDP (see graph above).
MADRID | By J. J. Figares (LINK) | On Wednesday, the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (BoE) were published. Although 9 of its members voted to retain unchanged its program of asset purchases in secondary markets, 2 of them, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weal, they voted against the proposal to keep interest rates reference at the current level of 0.5% and advocated to increase them by a quarter percentage point.
Berlin | By Alberto Lozano | Mario Draghi is speaking today again. Although no decisions or changes in the ECB’s monetary policy are expected, markets expect to know the ECB president’s assessment of the latest economic and financial developments.