The Spanish banks could use mergers to achieve cost savings of up to 27%, due the increase in asset volumes these transactions would bring. The entities emerging from these tie-ups with over 200 billion euros in assets would cut costs between 8% and 27%, while those with 50-100 billion euros in assets could save between 4% and 20%, according to the latest edition of think-tank Funcas’ bi-monthly Economic Information Journal.
Ofelia Marín-Lozano | All the banks have seen a sharp decline in their profitability compared with a decade ago. This is partly due to the heavy provisions made to offset the impact of the property crisis (over 300 billion euros in accumulated terms). But it is also the result of the decrease in pre-provisions operating profit and the requirement for the lenders to raise their capital in line with assets.
Maximising profits is the main objective of any company and the banks are not alien to this situation. The current scenario is particulary challenging for the profitability adjustment of the sector in Europe and the adjustments made by the Spanish banks are proof of this.
UBS | President Draghi surprised the market positively, both in terms of the magnitude of some of the expected moves (QE extension in the upper end of the range) and also implementing new measures (acquisition of non-financial IG bonds in its asset purchases, and new targeted TLTRO). For (retail) banks like the Spanish, the balance of ECB’s actions has to be considered as positive, especially if trends seen in the swap market are confirmed in Euribor fixings.
Regardless of the disappointments, the one-off items, a few little surprises and all kinds of explanations regarding their earnings and provisions, the so-called big banks’ results are what they are. And none of them have anything to celebrate. They remain vulnerable and unable to reach cruising speed.
The Spanish banks’ non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio fell to 10.35% in November (10.56% in October), with total bad loans standing at 138.894 billion euros. But this simple figure encapsulates the eternal problems of statistics. The fact is that the average NPL figure provided by the Bank of Spain does not reflect the significant differences between the banks.
It looks as if 2016 will be the first year to bring some normality to Spain’s banking sector in terms of capital requirements since the start of the deep financial crisis. The most important consquence of this crisis has been the sharp drop in the industry’s profitability – a 6.8% decline in return on equity (ROE) to 5.3% in six years. But AFI analysts estimate that the Spanish banking sector’s profitability will be around 6-7% over the next few years.
In the last six years, the Spanish banking sector’s return on equity (ROE) has fallen by 6.8 percentage points from 12.1% to 5.3%, mainly due to increased capital requirements. But the drop would have been even greater if it had not been for the ECB’s policies. This ROE data coincides with a complaint from Banco Popular chairman, Angel Ron, who said the regulation affecting the financial industry is “abrasive.”
Despite the fact that many of the banking sector ratios are improving, the Bank of Spain in its November bulletin has once again called on the industry to adjust its business model and even adapt its corporate strategy to a demanding economic and regulatory environment.
Last week the Spanish banking sector began its third quarter results presentations, but analysts are going one step further and are already looking for indications ahead of 2016. The outlook is not wholly favourable if we take into account the factors affecting it on the downside.