BBVA is a well-managed bank, but with a geographical exposure that is currently very negative. The financial entity’s shares have risen in a roller coast since the new President of Brazil, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, announced and then retracted his party’s plan to limit bank commissions.
The Spanish financial entity BBVA has entered the Dow Jones sustainability index, which Telefonica has left. BBVA shares have accumulated losses of -23.38% so far in this exercise, weighed down by the situation in Turkey, a region which contributed 11% of the Group’s net profits in the first half of 2018.
Renta 4 | The ratings agency S&P has maintained the rating of BBVA, but has lowered the Outlook from stable to negative because its exposure to Turkey through Garanti, of which BBVA controls 49.85% and which accounts for 15% of the Group´s profits.
Bankinter | We are revising our recommendation for BBVA to Neutral from Buy because of the deterioration of the situation in Turkey.
Turkish President Erdogan has began to exercise his new “attributes”, recently provided by an ever more authoritarian political system, in relation to the monetary policy of the central bank by affirming informally that interest rates will be lowered. This weakened the Turkish Lira from 4.66/$ to 4.85/$ (although it layered recovered to 4.82/$). This had a negative impact on the share price of BBVA, which holds 49.85% in the Turkish bank Garantí.
Bankinter analysts believe the markets are undervaluing the European Financial Sector. Expect average BPA for the sector as a whole to exceed 10% in 2018.
Bankia Chairman, José Ignacio Goirigolzarri, has fuelled M&A rumours after saying in an interview with the FT that the bank “fits perfectly with other large Spanish banks, specially BBVA.”
Fernando Rodríguez | Analysts who study banking stocks every day do not seem to pay much attention to the factors which condition the systemic banks. In general, they feel that whether a bank is systemic or not should not influence its stock market performance or its dividend policy. It should not be the only criteria for investing in a bank.
BBVA said on Wednesday that net attributable profit rose 31.5% to 3.475 billion euros in 2016 from a year earlier, the highest figure since 2010.
Despite all the international support Erdogan has received since the failed coup on July 15, the situation in Turkey has become complicated because of the President’s reaction. It has fuelled a dangerous dynamic in the Euroasian country which could end up harming the Turkish economy and, therefore, the international companies operating there.