The interest on the US 10-year bond has reached 3%, its highest level in 10 years (blue line). There is nothing exceptional about this given that, as we can see in the graphic, expected inflation has also taken off.
Yesterday, April 19, after being flat for months, with no pulse, the Euribor finally showed signs of life. It moved from the range of -0.190% (average for April) to -0.189%. One basis point.
One factor that could alter the judgement on current stock market prices are long-term interest rates, indicators of the alternative no-risk returns to the stockmarket, which are not fixed directly by the central banks but by the market itself.
Spanish bond prices are not reflecting the risk of Catalan secession simply because the foreign economic press doesn’t rate the likelihood of it happening, nor the conflict which will follow 1-O.
Analysts at Julius Baer think it is “comforting” to see that the bond market is efficient. In other words, they say that for German bond investors it is basically the same whether they invest in negative- yielding German Bunds or buy US bonds and pay for the hedging of the currency risk.
Various world-renowned experts are increasingly doubtful that the stock markets’ level is sustainable. But there is still huge euphoria. While money remains cheap, in relation to the expectation of gains, speculation will continue.
Ofelia Marín-Lozano | As inflation increases, the TIPS (treasury inflaction protected securities) are the asset which offer the best peformance, ahead of commodities and equities (….)much better than traditional bonds in the case of rising inflation, very similar in the case of a decline in activity and worse in the case of falling inflation.
Miguel Ángel Tramullas | Investment in public debt has traditionally been one of the most popular fixed income assets with both retail and institutional investors. It’s considered as a safe-haven. But in the last few years, it has lost part of its attraction because of lower interest rates which in some places are now in negative territory. To protect themselves, many countries like the US, Japan, the UK, France, Italy and also Spain have begun to issue inflation-linked bonds.
There was a consensus in the market that the ECB will announce an extension of its current asset-purchase programme and so president Mario Draghi did it by expanding QE more than expected to December 2017. He also committed to do it even longer if needed.”The presence of the ECB on markets will be there for a long time,” he explained.
The yield differential between the Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds has risen 21 basis points since the start of September and stands at around 34 basis points. We expect a recovery in the differential, which will be gradual and limited to 50-55 bps, up until Italy holds its referendum on constitutional reform.