Chris Stafford via The Conversation | Despite repeatedly insisting he didn’t want a general election, Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, has now tried and failed to get parliament to support one. It now looks like he’ll try again or seek a vote by some other route. Having lost his majority and control of parliament, a general election seems almost inevitable now. The big question, though, is when it will happen.
Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa Group | Our key assumption is that Boris Johnson wants a deal, just a different one. That is in itself complex, but not yet impossible to achieve and get passed. If he is reconciled with the possibility of no deal, then the outlook is much grimmer. At this stage we want to believe that rhetorics should not be taken at face value. It is a close call. It has been our long-standing view that any resolution on Brexit is likely to entail elections – with the uncertainty it entails. We think the latest events have raised this probability.
Peter Isackson via Fair observer | Though Steve Bannon’s English hero, Boris Johnson, is (momentarily) in charge of the chaos in the UK, his Italian champion, Matteo Salvini, is out.
Chris Iggo (Axa IM) | Suddenly the Brexit stakes have been raised. Prime Minister Johnson has made a call that convincing the world that he is prepared to leave the EU without a deal and that he is prepared to take risks with democratic and parliamentary convention are worth it if it results in the UK and the EU reaching a compromise withdrawal agreement before October 31st. It is a gamble and the tactics are being challenged by both political and public responses. Yet an alternative course of action is hard to see given the lack of credible anti-no-deal strategies so far. If Johnson’s bet pays off, the UK leaves the EU with a deal, sterling rallies, and confidence to the economic outlook can return. If not, economic and political chaos will continue and probably worsen. I said I would adhere to “Sober September” – that might prove to be very challenging!
Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | Driven by concerns about a no-deal Brexit, in less than a week, the pound sterling has fallen more than 2.7% against the euro, reaching its lowest levels in the last two years.
Shaun Riordan | Prime Minister, You enter office in the middle of the UK´s greatest peacetime crisis. Your optimism and can-do spirit are admirable. You will need to be decisive. But your actions need to be based on reality not fantasy, especially in relation to Foreign policy, on which this Memorandum focuses…
Shaun Riordan | Boris Johnson will fulfill his life-long ambition of becoming Prime Minister this afternoon. The pro-Europeans within his own Conservative Party have postponed their rebellion until after the summer. Mrs May will therefore be able to recommend Johnson to the Queen as the political leader best placed to secure a majority in the House of Commons, and therefore best able to form a new Government. But that majority is wafer thin. Even with the support of the N Ireland Unionists, his overall majority is only three. That is likely to be reduced to two following an upcoming by-election. Up to twenty Conservative MPs have indicated they could be ready to bring down the Government to avoid a no deal Brexit.
Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | Boris Johnson’s march to Downing Street is becoming a surreal, even psychedelic, cartoon hovering between tragedy and farce.
J. P. Marín-Arrese | Faced with a humiliating snub from Parliament, Ms May had to drop plans for going ahead with a hard Brexit, whatever the price. As she has suddenly switched to a confusing soft-exit proposal, Mr Davis wisely refused to carry it through. His resignation shows to what extent the UK has become cornered with no conceivable way out at hand. Johnson’s resignation shows the open rift and represents a direct challenge to Ms May’s leadership.
The departures of David Davis and Boris Johnson clearly rip apart what appeared to be the makings of a fragile Brexit ceasefire among some of the big players in the Conservative Party. That ceasefire has now collapsed into open conflict and chaos. And while it’s foolhardy to make any firm predictions at the moment, it’s clear that May has a major crisis on her hands.