brexit

The Fed balance sheet and repo facility cannot explain the stock market’s movement in isolation

World economy 12th September 2019

Risks are rising, but recession in the eurozone is not expected

Johannes Müller (DWS) | Three months ago, we warned that: “The outlook for the world economy is getting cloudier. Escalating trade tensions could trigger further downgrades.” Sadly, this has now come to pass. In several export-oriented economies, notably Germany and Japan, we had to cut our growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. For the U.S., we have left our 2020 forecast unchanged at 2%, but now expect just 2.3% for 2019, 0.2% less than three months ago.

World economy 9th September 2019

The Power of Influence in Postmodern Culture and Politics

Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | From politics to science and the arts, we need to understand how “influence” works and how the notion has evolved in recent history.

In Europe 3rd September 2019

Brexit: the Spartans won in the end

Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa Group | Our key assumption is that Boris Johnson wants a deal, just a different one. That is in itself complex, but not yet impossible to achieve and get passed. If he is reconciled with the possibility of no deal, then the outlook is much grimmer. At this stage we want to believe that rhetorics should not be taken at face value. It is a close call. It has been our long-standing view that any resolution on Brexit is likely to entail elections – with the uncertainty it entails. We think the latest events have raised this probability.

Markets 3rd September 2019

Even if a US recession is avoided, the S&P 500 could fall by as much as 10-15%

Experts at UBP believe that fiscal stimulus or, more effectively, fiscal- monetary coordination presents the most potent upside catalyst to risk-assets.

In Europe 28th August 2019

Pound sterling is a key barometer of Brexit uncertainty

Ann-Katrin Petersen, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investor | The more uncertain the UK political environment, the weaker the GBP, and vice versa. A structural appreciation of GBP, which we deem to be undervalued, necessitates more clarity and a benign decision in the Brexit discussion.

Markets 21st August 2019

How to confront a trade conflict without fear

Thomas Lehr (Flossbach von Storch) | The US-China trade conflict is keeping markets on tenterhooks. Should we therefore avoid equities? We encourage investors to be courageous. Quality prevails. An argument in favour of long term investment.

World economy 4th August 2019

Increasing chances of no-deal Brexit: pound in free fall

Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | Driven by concerns about a no-deal Brexit, in less than a week, the pound sterling has fallen more than 2.7% against the euro, reaching its lowest levels in the last two years.

World economy 31st July 2019

Enjoy the holidays: Autumn could get nasty

Shaun Riordan │Many of us are already enjoying our summer holidays. Others are packing now, looking forward to relaxing on the beach, or in the mountains. Wherever we are taking our holidays we should make the most of them. A perfect storm is brewing which could hit Europe hard in the autumn, with devasting economic and political consequences.

In Europe 25th July 2019

Memorandum to Boris Johnson

Shaun Riordan | Prime Minister, You enter office in the middle of the UK´s greatest peacetime crisis. Your optimism and can-do spirit are admirable. You will need to be decisive. But your actions need to be based on reality not fantasy, especially in relation to Foreign policy, on which this Memorandum focuses…

In Europe 21st July 2019

Will Boris Johnson Be the New Face of Britain?

Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | Boris Johnson’s march to Downing Street is becoming a surreal, even psychedelic, cartoon hovering between tragedy and farce.

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