The Power of Influence in Postmodern Culture and Politics
Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | From politics to science and the arts, we need to understand how “influence” works and how the notion has evolved in recent history.
brexit
Brexit: the Spartans won in the end
Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa Group | Our key assumption is that Boris Johnson wants a deal, just a different one. That is in itself complex, but not yet impossible to achieve and get passed. If he is reconciled with the possibility of no deal, then the outlook is much grimmer. At this stage we want to believe that rhetorics should not be taken at face value. It is a close call. It has been our long-standing view that any resolution on Brexit is likely to entail elections – with the uncertainty it entails. We think the latest events have raised this probability.
Even if a US recession is avoided, the S&P 500 could fall by as much as 10-15%
Experts at UBP believe that fiscal stimulus or, more effectively, fiscal- monetary coordination presents the most potent upside catalyst to risk-assets.
Pound sterling is a key barometer of Brexit uncertainty
Ann-Katrin Petersen, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investor | The more uncertain the UK political environment, the weaker the GBP, and vice versa. A structural appreciation of GBP, which we deem to be undervalued, necessitates more clarity and a benign decision in the Brexit discussion.
How to confront a trade conflict without fear
Thomas Lehr (Flossbach von Storch) | The US-China trade conflict is keeping markets on tenterhooks. Should we therefore avoid equities? We encourage investors to be courageous. Quality prevails. An argument in favour of long term investment.
Increasing chances of no-deal Brexit: pound in free fall
Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | Driven by concerns about a no-deal Brexit, in less than a week, the pound sterling has fallen more than 2.7% against the euro, reaching its lowest levels in the last two years.
Enjoy the holidays: Autumn could get nasty
Shaun Riordan │Many of us are already enjoying our summer holidays. Others are packing now, looking forward to relaxing on the beach, or in the mountains. Wherever we are taking our holidays we should make the most of them. A perfect storm is brewing which could hit Europe hard in the autumn, with devasting economic and political consequences.
Memorandum to Boris Johnson
Shaun Riordan | Prime Minister, You enter office in the middle of the UK´s greatest peacetime crisis. Your optimism and can-do spirit are admirable. You will need to be decisive. But your actions need to be based on reality not fantasy, especially in relation to Foreign policy, on which this Memorandum focuses…
Will Boris Johnson Be the New Face of Britain?
Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | Boris Johnson’s march to Downing Street is becoming a surreal, even psychedelic, cartoon hovering between tragedy and farce.
UK Economic Viewpoint: No deal risks up again
BoAML | The risks of a no deal Brexit have risen in our view. No deal is not our base case, but that is now a close call.