Intermoney | As the pandemic has eased in Europe, long-standing problems have returned to the forefront, one of which is the ever-present Brexit. According to the FT, there is greater willingness to bring positions closer together, so that there would be a breakthrough in the negotiations from 29 June, However, the conflictive issues remain and include: the UK’s demand to hold on to the access to its fishing waters, the disagreements over how to create a regulatory playing field to protect companies from unfair competition. There is also Brussels’ desire to wrap up all the parts of a future relationship into a single legal agreement.
Tristán de Borbón (London) | On March 2 the British government started to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU… and to set out its goals for an agreement with the USA. A strategy that puzzles analysts.
JP Marín-Arrese | Those betting Brexit would take a heavy toll on Britain, discover much to their surprise that the EU stands as the first collateral casualty. The vacuum left in the budget by the UK departure has fuelled bitter acrimony between the Member States, especially in those receiving large amounts of Community money, like Spain. Its PM Sánchez has described the proposal tabled by the Council Chair as deeply disappointing.
Political uncertainty about the Brexit procedure caused the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) gross domestic product (GDP) to stagnate in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, the strong decrease in political uncertainty since the 12 December parliamentary election should allow the UK economy to rebound back to growth during the first quarter of this year, explains Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Julius Baer.
The calm that preceded Boris Johnson’s electoral victory and the approval of Brexit is coming to an end and the gaps looking ahead raise the question “And now what?”. The UK PM faces the option of hooking up with existing EU standards, which will allow for greater trade; and regulatory autonomy, which gives the UK domestic control, but makes trade difficult. But the choice of one way or the other will have consequences.
Julius Baer | Although the UK will most likely officially exit the EU tomorrow, this exit will mostly be formal. The withdrawal agreement only defines the terms of divorce, limiting immediate disruptions, but says little about the future trade relationship between the UK and EU. The so-called ‘Political Declaration’, a 26- page sketch of the future trade relationship alongside the with- drawal agreement, but not legally binding, defines a so-called ‘transition’ or ‘implementation’ period from the date of Brexit until the end of 2020.
The chances of “getting Brexit done” reasonably quickly and smoothly have never been better.
Allianz GI / Victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party in the UK general election is likely to be welcomed by markets and potentially boosts prospects for the UK economy. It doesn’t, however, end the Brexit uncertainty overnight – and the UK continues to be vulnerable to a late-cycle global environment.
David A. Meier (Julius Baer) | Prime Minister Johnson’s Conservative Party grabbed a commanding victory. An orderly Brexit based on the withdrawal agreement is highly likely on 31 January. Given plenty of looming uncertainties during the transition period, such as the final UK-EU trade relationship and Scottish appetite for independence, we stick to a Neutral short-term British pound outlook.