brexit

CUS China trade conflict

How to confront a trade conflict without fear

Thomas Lehr (Flossbach von Storch) | The US-China trade conflict is keeping markets on tenterhooks. Should we therefore avoid equities? We encourage investors to be courageous. Quality prevails. An argument in favour of long term investment.


EU perfect storm

Enjoy the holidays: Autumn could get nasty

Shaun Riordan │Many of us are already enjoying our summer holidays. Others are packing now, looking forward to relaxing on the beach, or in the mountains. Wherever we are taking our holidays we should make the most of them. A perfect storm is brewing which could hit Europe hard in the autumn, with devasting economic and political consequences.


boris johnson 1

Memorandum to Boris Johnson

Shaun Riordan | Prime Minister, You enter office in the middle of the UK´s greatest peacetime crisis. Your optimism and can-do spirit are admirable. You will need to be decisive. But your actions need to be based on reality not fantasy, especially in relation to Foreign policy, on which this Memorandum focuses…




ibex chulisima

Ibex 35 profits (-13,6%), marked by banking sector, macro slowdown and emerging markets

Santander Corporate & Investment | The publication of results is nearing its end, and European company profits have shown resilience in face of a global environment dominated by uncertainty: the trade war, volatility in emerging markets and weakness in their currencies, Brexit, the growth of populism etc. Spanish companies are very exposed to international markets, given that only a third of their benefits come from the domestic market.


May's Brexit strategy: avoid becoming the new Ramsay Mac

EU Elections: UK remains divided on Brexit

Shaun Riordan | The elections to the European Parliament in the UK were always something of a farce. Because of the inability of the British political class to decide what kind of Brexit it wanted, if indeed it wanted Brexit at all, British voters were forced to elect members to the parliament of a Union which, in theory at least, they will leave in five months. But they were also something of an anti-climax.


'Brexitology': we could get to October without clarifying anything

‘Brexitology’: We Could Get To October Without Clarifying Anything

Ofelia Marín-Lozano (1962 Capital SICAV) | 12 April was the deadline for the UK to decide of it was going to leave the EU without an agreement or, on the other hand, seek a new delay. The worst scenario for markets, a no deal Brexit, has been ruled out. The EU have granted the UK a new delay, which ends at the end of October 2019, to see if they can finally come to some kind of conclusion.


PM Theresa May wins election without majority

Brexit extension: how much will it actually cost the UK to leave the EU?

Jonathan Perraton via The Conversation UK | EU leaders have agreed a short extension to Brexit until October 31 at the latest, in order to give the British parliament time to agree a deal. This date avoids the UK still being a member when the next EU budget cycle starts – but what does it mean for the “divorce bill”, the money the UK will pay the EU after its departure?


volality

Uncertainty? Volatility index 20% below its historical average

After a period of gloomy macro data, market watchers are starting to see the light. According to Allianz research, the share of “bulls” has increasedfrom around 30% at the start of the year to currently 54% net. At the same time, the volatility index is some 20% below its historical average, in spite of the much greater uncertainty facing the world economy.