If the Conservatives return to power with a large majority in the UK elections, UBP analysts anticipate the new government will engage in a large scale fiscal stimulus and UK assets will experience a relief rally.
“If the conservatives of Boris Johnson obtained the majority in the Parliament, the agreement of exit of the prime minister would return to the agenda of the new House and probably it would be approved. The United Kingdom will then begin the transition period (which in principle extends until the end of 2020) during which the future relationship with the EU will be defined,” analysts at Degroof Petercam point out.
D. A. Meier (Julius Baer) | Based on a lead in polls, a Conservative majority is highly likely. Labour’s socialist manifesto seems too radical to spur a full catch-up. A hung parliament remains a considerable risk. After a Conservative victory, a moderate fiscal boost could limit the Brexit fallout. After a Labour win, its political agenda could erode its huge fiscal spending plans, despite a softer Brexit.
DWS | In the face of persistent commercial tensions, the atmosphere in boardrooms has deteriorated much more than in homes.
Olivier de Berranger (La Financière de l’Échiquier) |”Let’s have fun”. Have the words of President Charles de Gaulle been prophetic? He was against the United Kingdom’s entry into the Common Market in 1963… More than 50 years later, although the tribulations of Brexit may cause amusement or disappointment, the truth is that they have been poisoning investors’ lives for more than three years, by separating them from British stocks. However, the outcome of this endless soap opera could well change the situation.
(European Views) | Addressing the European Parliament in Strasbourg, President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker has described Brexit as ‘a waste of time and a waste of energy.’
David Alexander Meier (Julius Baer) | Thursday’s EU summit is the last date to secure a deal before Saturday’s ‘deal or delay’ deadline. Due to difficulties in finding a deal and parliamentary ratification, we rather expect a delay. We remain short-term Neutral on the pound given a delay and long-term Bullish, as the only way to Brexit is through a deal.
Ana Fuentes | After various decades in the private and public sector, Josina Kammerling, responsible for regulation at the CFA Institute, knows in detail the ins and outs of the financial market and its rules. She can therefore indicate its pros and cons. And do so in fluent English, Dutch, French or Italian … And also in perfect Spanish learnt as a girl in Burgos, where she moved when she was two: “My father opened the Heineken factory there” she recalls with a smile.
J. P. Marín-Arrese | All Brexiteers want is fast delivery and no one better placed than Boris to capitalise on their anger and frustration.
Johannes Müller (DWS) | Three months ago, we warned that: “The outlook for the world economy is getting cloudier. Escalating trade tensions could trigger further downgrades.” Sadly, this has now come to pass. In several export-oriented economies, notably Germany and Japan, we had to cut our growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. For the U.S., we have left our 2020 forecast unchanged at 2%, but now expect just 2.3% for 2019, 0.2% less than three months ago.