The People’s Bank of China pumps 1.2tn yuan into the financial system to protect the economy from the coronavirus Global stocks extended their rally last week despite concerns that the coronavirus will slow global growth. Experts at Julius Baer continue to argue that stocks are susceptible to a short-term correction and consider any weakness as an entry opportunity for long-term investors.
Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | Policymakers in China made a credible move in their attempt to regain control over the current situation. After injecting liquidity into financial markets, they announced the potential for a cure/vaccination available soon and later cut some tariffs on US imports. Fear-stricken markets took a sigh of relief.
The world has changed a lot because China has changed a lot. China’s share of global GDP has risen from a negligible 2% in 1990 to 15.9%. Meanwhile, the other powers have fallen in that period: Japan, from 14 to 5.8%; Europe, from 35% to 21.9%; and the USA, from 27% to 23.9%, according to Weltbank data. So hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany are now dependent on China. And all over the world, because China today accounts for 1/3 of world growth.
Alphavalue | The magnitude of the downward revisions to the sectors should not come as a big surprise. In a very negative case (“worst case scenario”), the luxury sector could lose 34% and may come as an unpleasant surprise. The Stoxx600 would drop by 15% if fundamentals are threatened again. Although they were not a problem 10 days ago, it seems that sensitivity has increased now.
Most economists were probably expecting a fairly easy ride at the beginning of 2020. However, unforeseen exogenous events such as the outbreak of China coronavirus are standing in the way, generating a high level of uncertainty. In the opinion of Gilles Moëc , Chief Economist at AXA IM, that now ” economic policy could be on autopilot is not very consensual”.
Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | Investors seeking protections may consider stocks in the healthcare and internet space, which are less exposed. However, more importantly, the recent outbreak does not change our medium- and long-term constructive view on Chinese equities. We are inclined to buy on weakness in the equity market at this stage.
Dave Yin (Caixin) | China is making major revisions to its antitrust law for the first time in more than 11 years to give it more teeth while reining in the dominance of the country’s internet goliaths.China is making major revisions to its antitrust law for the first time in more than 11 years to give it more teeth while reining in the dominance of the country’s internet goliaths.
Monex Europe | The euro’s fortunes turned sour in 2019 despite the year starting with a positive outlook.
Yu Hairong, Wu Hongyuran, Huo Kan, Cheng Siwei and Han Wei (Caixin) | Where is the Chinese economy heading and how will policymakers react? As the new year approaches, debate over the outlook of the world’s second-largest economy is heating up, and all eyes are searching for clues to the next policy steps.
Libby Cantrill (Pimco) | We’ve seen a significant reduction or even outright elimination of many of the downside risks that have created clouds of uncertainty both in Washington and in financial markets over the past several months. The most substantial clarifying event was the announcement of the Phase 1 deal between China and the U.S.