The current uncertain political panorama in Spain after the December 20 elections has not been reflected in any significant way in sovereign debt spreads. The yield on the 10-year bond compared with the German bund is around 130 bp, no more than 10-15 bp above the pre-elections level. One alternative to reduce (or diversify) exposure to Spain’s public debt may be take positions in Italian debt.
The global economy in general, and the Spanish economy in particular, are experiencing turbulent times. China, the emerging markets, raw materials, the weak recovery, inflation or exchange rates are entangled with the domestic problems of each individual country. In Spain, these are focused on a political map with a lot of question marks and a worrying level of private debt, which Abengoa’s crisis has accentuated.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | During 2015, Greece’s ability to meet its debt obligations became one of the most drama-ridden aspects of a story that started unfolding when SYRIZA won the January elections.
The Spanish Treasury sold €2.102 billion worth of bonds at its last auction of the year, meeting its issuance target for 2015 of €139 billion. Its average issuing period in 2015 was 9.1 years, not seen since 2010, and it paid an average yield of 0.87%. This has meant that the average cost of debt in circulation has fallen to a record low of 3.16%.
BARCLAYS | Brazil is confronting a toxic combination of a primary budg et deficit, high public debt (relative to EM countries), very high real interest rates (the Selic stands at 14.25%), sluggish trend growth, a negative commodity price shock and potential contingent liabilities for the sovereign, which together spell trouble for public debt dynamics.
Fernando Barciela | Madrid leftwing Mayor Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) upset the markets and the media last week with her decision to fire credit rating agencies Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch, effective from 2016.
HowMuch.net | The countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratios are Japan (230%), Greece (177%), Lebanon (134%), Jamaica (133%), Italy (132%), and Portugal (130%). This isn’t necessarily a huge problem. As long as countries are using borrowed funds to successfully stimulate their economies, they will be able to pay back their debts on time.
After recently raising Spain’s sovereign ratings to ‘BBB+’ from ‘BBB’, S&P has also improved its stance on some of the country’s top banks. S&P’s upgrades comes in the same week as the Madrid local authorities said they could not renew the contracts with that agency.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | The head of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) Klaus Regling leads an organisation that in its previous form as the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), issued loans of 17.7 billion euros to Ireland, 26 billion euros to Portugal and just under 131 billion to Greece.
By Manos Giakoumis at MacroPolis | Following the European Central Bank’s governing council meeting on Thursday, Mario Draghi provided more detail about issues relating to the eligibility of Greek government bonds (GGBs) for the Quantitative Easing (QE) programme and reinstating the waiver on Greek government securities for ECB funding.