AXA IM | Companies have re-leveraged their balance sheets since the global financial crisis (GFC), driven by low borrowing costs. Although heightened, corporate leverage is not currently excessive in developed markets, although we see signs of concern in emerging markets. In this note we assess whether we should be concerned about corporate leverage at current levels.
Investors’ fears and their hunt for safe haven assets are having an unsuspected impact on European public debt yields: nearly two thirds of these securities are in negative territory; the German bund is beating a new record low on a daily basis and Spanish debt is approaching the minimum levels recorded in April 2015.
UBS | In this report, we focus on three pivotal questions that we consider crucial for investing in any security in Spain: First, what is the economic outlook for 2016/17, and what are the biggest economic policy challenges that the next government will face? Second, what are the likely scenarios for the outcome of the elections on 26 June? And third, what is the valuation and relative attractiveness of Spanish assets, how will asset markets react to different election outcomes, and what is or is not priced in?
“Monetary stimulus is driving European sovereign debt towards irrational levels which are no reward for the risks involved and make any correction phases more dangerous,” say analysts at Intermoney.
It has been revealed this week that Spain’s public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time, reaching 1.095 billion euros. According to the Bank of Spain, this figure represents about 101% of GDP. Almost at the same time, Bloomberg published a graph showing that this level had not been seen since 1909, as well as the level of debt during the Spanish Civil War. With just one month to go to new elections in Spain is this graph oportunistic?
Caixin | Financial markets have been jolted by a number of defaults on corporate debt in recent weeks, with state-owned Dongbei Special Steel Group Co. missing a 700 million yuan repayment on May 5.
It’s strange that in the US there are so many people worried about the possibility that the country might end up being like Greece. There are other crazy people who make the comparision with Zimbabwe. Greece or Zimbabwe, well it depends on whether the threat is related to the state going bankrupt or to hyperinflation.
UBS | Positive developments for Greece and broader European assets Monday’s Eurogroup on Greece contained a number of positive developments relating to the country’s on-going programme review as well as debt relief. We expect those developments to support Greek and broader European risk assets, where we have argued for upside (see most recently “Which risks to fade; which risks to take” ).
UBS | Non-Japan Asian private debt is now the highest in the world for any major region and is climbing toward 170% of GDP. As we have argued in our Debtopia thesis since 2013, rising leverage will increasingly result in diminishing marginal benefits to economies and profits when debt becomes excessive.
After straightening out the disputes with the Panamanian authorities over the costs related to the Canal works, Sacyr will finally inaugurate it in June. Board member Juan Maria Aguirre points out that the company has succeeded in overcoming the property crash and has drastically reduced its debt levels. Now it has to contend with the unexpected consequences of having an 8.5% stake in Repsol after the oil price bubble burst.