There is a statistic link between profits and investment, in the US, so a drop in the former determines a recession in the following quarter. But the Trump effect is likely to mean another imminent recession will have to wait.
The markets are still discounting the inflationary impact of Trump’s measures. Furthermore, they are anticipating the positive effects of his fiscal policy, the best short-term guarantee of which is in economic agents’ shift in expectations. Our criticism of excessive complacency on these issues is well-known, although it’s true that the market doesn’t see it that way.
Someone like Donald Trump emerging on the world stage threatens to make too many changes in the status quo, some of which will have a particular impact on Europe’s economies and especially Spain. One area which appears likely to progress at a cruising speed in the short and medium-term is Defence spending. This is a particularly sensitive issue and one which Obama already tried to have modified during his mandate.
Since the beginning of 2014, the Spanish economy has been recovering from a very tough crisis – unemployment jumped from 8% in 2008 to 26% at the start of 2014 and has now fallen to 18.9%. This is in part thanks to the ECB’s extremely expansionary monetary policy and low interest rates. Now after Donald Trump’s victory, everything could become unstable.
Many take comfort from the prospect of higher inflation and rising interest rates driven by the fiscal stimulus the President-elect Trump promises to deliver. This will push the dollar up, endowing European exports with increased competitiveness. Yet the currency tailwind expectations might prove short lived as current debt levels curb any significant public deficit-led expansion.
AXA IM | Mexico, together with China, appears to be the country most exposed to Trump’s economic policy given its vicinity and close trade relations with the US. The Mexican peso has depreciated by 10% relative to its pre-election day closing level, the stock market is down 6% and the local currency sovereign 10-year rate has shot up by 112bps.
In the wake of Trump’s win there has been are record inflow of funds into the US stock market and a heavy outflow from bonds and emerging markets. Over $30 billion went into the US equity market in the week of November 16th, according to data published by EPFR Global.
Joachim Koops | November 9, 2016, could become an American, transatlantic and global “Day of Fate” of another kind. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States of America is feared by some as leading to a US exit from liberal order.
It is too early to guess what kind of economic policy the Trump administration may deliver. The markets are crossing their fingers and praying the President-elect will ultimately hand over matters to an experienced team.
John Bruton | Donald Trump was much more eloquent than his rival, Hillary Clinton. He came across as comfortable with himself, whereas Clinton appeared anxious at times. He felt he could allow himself to be spontaneous, whereas she did not. Trump has raised so many expectations that it may be impossible for him to live up to them.