MADRID | By Carlos Díaz Güell | Definitely, Mario Draghi has turned communication into the essential tool for the European central bank’s policy to make sense without taking any measure at all. Month after month the ECB’s president resources to words instead of actions, but some analysts start to dislike this considering they have been long waiting for a move from the institution.
FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | Experts don’t agree about what can happen in the short and medium term in the Eurozone. The main critical voice is the president of Munich’s Ifo Institut, Hans-Werner Sinn, who believes that Europe is in a “resting phase” before the storm hits again. According to Germany, now is the time of the “Draghilogists”, i.e. those analysts who try to elucidate the ECB’s next step.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | ECB’s Mario Draghi’s Thursday speech is still creating buzz in Madrid’s financial circles: markets reacted very positively to the never-ending promise. Also, Bank of Spain’s chairman José María Linde alerted entities to keep strengthening their balance sheets, and explained that NPL rate slowdown will be moderate until recovery settles in.
MADRID | By Francisco López | While Mr. Draghi simply says that the ECB “is closely following the evolution of the exchange rate due to its impact on the price stability,” other international bodies such as the IMF, the OECD, the European Commission and most of the Eurozone’s countries (with the exception of Germany and its allies) demand the banking authority to take immediate action.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | Feel like investing in Spanish real estate? It’s apparently the time, according to Bankinter analysts, as European prices continue their upwards trend, financing costs are low and we see price recovery signs in big cities like Madrid and Barcelona. They suggest direct investment assets with a horizon beyond 3-5 years. Also, the EU announced on Monday that the Eurozone’s GDP will grow by 1.2% this year and by 1.7% in 2015. As for Spain, Brussels is less optimistic than the Spanish government in its forecast.
MADRID | By The Corner | For the first time a Spanish bank top executive has openly criticized the impact of the European Central Bank’s inaction on EZ credit lending. Spanish 2nd bank BBVA’s Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, also a former ECB board member, explained how banks are waiting to see which unconventional measures will Mr Draghi undertake, which is “fundamental for credit,” he said to Reuters on Monday. Some entities are also holding back on new credit plans and selling sovereign debt before the health checks due around October.
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | ECB policy makers are increasingly open about an eventual QE. Executive Board Member Benoît Coeuré was recently interviewed by French newspaper Le Monde. He weighed in austerity measures taken, and how could the ECB influence the level of the euro. As the central bank seems to be actually leaning towards unconventional measures, bonds and equity markets have already anticipated any announcements by Mario Draghi. But some fear what would happen if it was only lip service. What happened with the “whatever it takes” to preserve the eurozone’s integrity?
MADRID | By The Corner | When Autumn comes, so will QE. At least that’s what economists at Citigroup are predicting. “We believe that the chances of unsterilized large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) of public and private assets being launched this year have (…) increased to more than 50:50,” they said in a note on Tuesday. How much of a stimulus shot are we talking about? To have any effect it should be of at least 1,000 billion euros ($1,381 billion), they note, which would lift the inflation rate toward the ECB’s “below, but close to 2% target”. It could always be a decaffeinated step as some market makers are warning, but the truth is many on both sides of the Atlantic are hoping for Mr Draghi to make a move.
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | As ECB officials spend their time debating what form of QE the euro zone needs to fight deflation risk (note that although its inflation target is 2%, the central bank keeps on sitting on its hands while its balance sheet is shrinking), more data point to the positive effects of unconventional measures on growth. Check this one recently published by the Bank of England: the mere announcement of a QE shot corresponding to 1% of GDP caused a 0.36% real GDP increase and a 0.38% CPI rise in the U.S. –a little less in the U.K. Indeed, hope can move mountains… and money.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Something is wrong in the “kingdom of the Euro;” it’s just incomprehensible. The ECB is unable to keep the financial and monetary markets alive, which is a huge failure in view of the forthcoming European elections. The following charts show that the euro holds on just because we are asleep.