Ever since the nationalists in Catalonia flared a low key rebellion against Madrid, the region seems close to the world depicted by Aldous Huxley. They are attempting to create a brand new life, erasing all Spanish vestiges from early childhood onwards.
Whether the secessionists lead the new Catalonia’s government or not after December 21 elections, the weakened Spanish government will be inevitably forced to go through a negotiated constitutional reform which, amongst other objectives, will aim to satisfy the unrepentant Catalan nationalism.
Ciudadanos (37 seats) was the party which won the most votes in Catalonia but will not be able to form a government. The independent block still has control of the Parlament with 70 seats versus the 57 won by the constitutionalists and the 68 needed for an absolute majority. Ciudadanos’ victory is significant, a difficult milestone to achieve given the current electoral law. But the secessionists were able to hold on to their absolute majority in the regional parliament.
On the day when Catalonia votes for a new government, the region’s citizens are very confused about the reasons and where the blame lies for the situation they find themselves in.
For the time being, Spain’s economy is maintaining its cruising speed and GDP will grow 3.1% this year, according to estimates. But Catalonia’s progress is visibly slowing, with figures continually being downgraded.
Europe has been seriously hit by the outcome of the German elections. And it’s difficult for it not to suffer the consequences of being led by Germany. What is in doubt is whether in the next crisis, which could be fuelled by any of the underlying threats (Russia, immigrants, separatism etc) there will be sufficient common resources to deal with them.
The outcome of the Catalonia elections on December 21 will not easily bring a quick solution to the problem in the region. But both in the case of the independence movement losing the majority of seats (it no longer had the majority of votes and it’s almost impossible for it to obtain) or there being a division over the future, the path towards normalisation will have started.
The collapse of Germany’s coalition talks should not affect the economy or financial markets given that market overcame the shock very quicky on Monday and all the European indexes as well as the US closed upwards. It was also noticeable that was precisely the German DAX the one that increased stronger. However, this political uncertainty in Germany is bad news for Europe as four different scenarios are going forward.
From 15:25 last Friday afternoon, when the Catalan Parliament made its unilateral declaration of independence, events have speeded up. Three hours after the solemn, but sad proclamation, the Republic of Catalonia disappeared into thin air. Mariano Rajoy dissolved the regional parliament and fired Carles Puigdemont’s government by implementing Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution in the Senate. And the biggest surprise: a call for elections on December 21.
Whether it’s the initiative of the Catalan or Spanish government, Catalonia is this week heading for elections at the beginning of 2018. Some will say the elections are constituent towards obtaining independence and the new Republic of Catalonia. Others will hold the view that they are autonomous elections under the protection of the 1978 Spanish Constitution. In fact what they will be are elections to clarify the current real political map in Catalonia.