equity markets

Will The US Risk Rally Endure – And Can Cyclicals Continue To Lead?

Mona Mahajan (Allianz GI) | With equities rallying more than 30% since late March, driven most recently by cyclicals, financial markets were perhaps due for a period of consolidation. New risks could emerge, but we continue to believe in the ongoing economic re-opening story — so cyclical sectors may remain market leaders in the near term. Markets could be supported further as elevated levels of cash are put back to work.


A Healthy Correction For Unhealthy Reasons

Yves Bonzon (Julius Baer) | The global equity market has seen a multi-percent- age correction for a variety of reasons, from re- newed fears of a second wave of coronavirus infec- tions to disappointment about Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s policy stance. In the wake of a rally of almost 50% from the lows of March, it is fair to say that such a decline cannot come as a surprise.


Markets are repricing risks and feel neglected by the Fed.

DWS: “Markets are repricing risks and feel neglected by the Fed. This could create some downward momentum”

DWS | How should a hedge fund have positioned itself if it had known the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decisions and press release a day ahead of the market? Until lunchtime on Wednesday noon its staff might have reasonably concluded that the material contained preciously little actionable information. On paper, it would have all looked exactly as expected, leaving limited scope for any meaningful market reaction. This is not, of course, how things actually turned out.

 


Unintended consequences of saving the world from the financial crisis

Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?


IMF's optimistic outlook of global economy

The IMF’s Optimistic Vision Of The Global Outlook

In the IMF blog there is a brief view of how well the year has gone and the promises for the future which we can extract from this good performance. For me it’s proof of an excess confidence which in the past was a trap into which the markets systematically fell. But the IMF has to accept the rationalistic view that the markets don’t get it wrong, while I maintain they quite often make mistakes.


Stock markets

Markets Start Waivering Ahead Of Bad News In The Pipeline

In the aftermath of Mr Trump’s victory, stock markets surged, building on promises of strong stimuli and sizeable tax breaks. As time goes on, they are reappraising the short-term outlook, since fundamental changes may take more than one year to materialise. No wonder investors are turning cautious, cashing in on early gains.