Europe

Spanish economy 4th January 2022

Spain Opposes, Together With Germany And Austria, The EU Proposal To Gas And Nuclear Energy As Renewable

Renta 4 | The European Union surprised with a new plan that would label some natural gas and nuclear energy projects as “green” investments after a year of debate among the different governments about which investments are really climate-friendly. Specifically, the Brussels text, still in draft form, includes nuclear power plants already in operation and those to be built at least until 2045, as well as gas-fired power plants, which will enjoy the same recognition until 2030.

World economy 24th December 2021

Europe Fails To Recover At The Same Pace As The US Market

Julian Marx (Flossbach Von Storch) | Almost two years have passed since the outbreak of the pandemic and economic output in the Eurozone is still below pre-crisis levels, unlike in the US.The ECB envisages a more cautious monetary policy than the dollar bloc (Australia, Canada and the US): real economic output in the US in calendar year 2021 should already be a good two percent above that of 2019. In the eurozone, on the other hand, the statistics for 2021 will probably remain in some cases significantly below the pre-crisis level.

Cities are leading refugee integration efforts

European politics 10th April 2021

Germany’s Refugees Face a Future Without Angela Merkel

K iran Bowry | In 2015, the European refugee crisis awoke Germans from a long and comforting slumber that Angela Merkel had lulled them into with her political style. The term “asymmetric demobilization” came to be known as a way of describing the German chancellor’s shrewd strategy of sitting on the fence and thereby winning elections. Merkel weakened her political competitors by avoiding controversial issues and, in doing so, choking off debate. Simultaneously, she adopted popular policy stances of her opponents and demobilized their potential voters.

Spanish economy 16th March 2021

Investment In Intangibles In Spain Stands At Around 6.5% Against 7% In Germany And 12% In The US

Claudia Canals and Oriol Carreras Baquer (Caixabank)| Given the importance of investment in intangibles for boosting the digital transition, we wonder what impact NGEU will have on this type of investment. To answer this question, first we estimate the average increase in the relative weight of investment in intangibles as a proportion of GDP in Spain between 1995 and 2017. We then measure the impact that NGEU will have on investment in intangibles, considering in the calculation the carry-over effect that this programme could have on private investment.

European economy 25th February 2021

Between Europe And US…Clearly Europe

Morgan Stanley | The size of the Recovery Fund is very relevant, equivalent to 5% of the European Union’s GDP (10-15% in Greece, Spain and Italy). In contrast to the US, where the fiscal stimulus has been earmarked for more immediate/current spending, in Europe most of it is devoted to future investment with a long-lasting effect over the next 3-5 years. This long term duration is the key concept and the fundamental reason for our preference.

European economy 25th November 2020

Western Europe: Overdue invoices and write-offs increase dramatically

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) |For many businesses around the world, 2020 has been the most challenging year experienced for some time. Global GDP is forecast to contract by more than 4% this year, world trade by about 15% and insolvencies to increase by 26%. Without exception, every country polled in Europe reported an increase in late payments which corresponds to an average two-thirds increase on pre-pandemic figures for the whole region. This would make a bigger downturn than the 2008/2009 recession.

World economy 18th November 2020

An Overall Decrease In Dividends Per Share Of Between 16% And 36% Is Expected In 2020

Sean MarKowicz (Schroders) | The economic fallout of Covid-19 has wreaked havoc for income-seeking investors. Across the globe, interest rates have tumbled to record lows and equity dividends have been drastically cut.For example, this year dividends per share are expected to fall by 16% to 36% across the globe compared with 2019, with the UK and emerging markets (EM) among the worst affected regions. This has left investors nursing losses from normally dependable sources of income.

In the World, World economy 23rd October 2020

The Risk Of Huge Increase In Spending And Public Debt Due To Covid-19 Will Lead To More Ratings Downgrades

S&P has warned of the possibility of a second wave of sovereign credit rating downgrades around the world. So far in 2020, the firm has downgraded ratings or outlook for 60 countries. The problem lies in the effects of COVID-19 that be will dragged on over the next few years. In fact, some countries will add 15-20 GDP points to their public debt, which otherwise would have taken four or five years to accumulate. In addition, public spending will continue to be above normal for a period that can extend 3-5 years.

World economy 29th June 2020

Consumption: Support Point For Recovery

José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios ) | The first weeks of the opening of the economies are serving to gauge the response of consumption, a key variable in determining the profile and intensity of the recovery. In the US, the fiscal programmes for aid to families injected more than 300 billion dollars into disposable income in the second quarter. In Europe, instead of using direct aid as in the US, they have preferred to activate temporary employment suspension programmes (ERTE in Spain, kurzabeit in Germany, etc).

World economy 26th June 2020

The Gap Between The US And Europe On The Pandemic Front Is Getting Wider

Gilles Moec (AXA IM) | The divergence between Europe and the United States on the pandemic front continues.In the latter, the number of states facing an acceleration in the propagation of the virus rose furthe. Meanwhile, in Europe, while some clusters continue to appear, the speed of the epidemic is still markedly lower than when authorities considered it was safe to start re-opening the economy.

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