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Spain inflation

European economy 28th February 2020

M3 growth in the Eurozone is still higher than the level compatible with 2% inflation

J.L. M.Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The European Central Bank (ECB) published on Thursday the statistics for monetary aggregates in January. In January specifically, the growth rate accelerated to 5.2% per year. This increase in the M3 money supply continues to exceed the theoretical level compatible with medium and long-term inflation of 2%. The main contribution was from credit to the private sector, with an increase of 3.4% over last year.

Global Economy

World economy 25th January 2020

After Growing 3.2% In 2019, The Global Economy Will Expand 3.2% In 2020 And 3.3% In 2021

These growth forecasts are  dependent upon keeping geopolitical tensions in check, in addition to other risks threatening the world economy. Specifically, our scenario assumes that recent tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq will have no permanent negative impact on the global environment. In particular, oil prices are expected to stabilize at about $61 per barrel over the next two years, below the average value recorded in 2019 ($ 64) or the current price ($ 68).

banco sabadell palmeras

Markets 3rd December 2019

Banco Sabadell: from Over to Equal-Weight, and P. O. from 1.20 to 1.10 eur/share

Morgan Stanley | Bank analysts raised the sector to Attractive a few weeks ago because our macro no longer expects depo-type cuts and this increases confidence that profit estimates have hit a minimum in 2H19. We estimate a flat growth of the NII (+ 0.6%) in 2020 and 2021. There is optionality in the charge for deposits (could add 3% to the NII of the Eurozone banks).

Spain inflation

In Europe 12th November 2019

Eurozone’s macro adjustment – (mostly) Checked

The best indicator of activity in the Eurozone is not the PMIs, but the Sentix Index, the investor sentiment meter: although it is true that it is still at low levels, it just experience the highest rise since August 2009.

Central banks' QE was a powerful driver of the economy and markets

Markets 20th September 2019

Central banks do what they can

DWS | “First, do no harm.” That command may, or may not have been part of the Hippocratic Oath among medical practitioners since ancient times. Central bankers, however, appear increasingly keen to follow that maxim on both sides of the Atlantic. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) once again lowered key rates by “only” 25 basis points to a target corridor of 1.75%-2.00%. And once again, its reasons included subdued inflation as well as risks resulting from weaker global growth and various trade conflicts, justifying another insurance cut. In that sense at least, President Trump has seems to have influenced central-bank policy.