Luís Pinheiro de Matos (CaixaBank Research | The pandemic has been felt in all sectors of the economy, particularly in tourism services, a key sector for the Spanish economy. Nevertheless, the foreign sector held up very well in the face of an unprecedented shock, and despite not having this traditional contribution the current account managed to maintain a surplus. The starting point for rebuilding a path of sustainable growth is better than one might have expected. Focusing on the balance of goods in 2020, a year with a historic fall of 10.8% of GDP, Spanish exports of non-energy goods fell by 8.3%, but managed to remain above 250 billion euros (around 22% of GDP) for the fourth consecutive year.
Luis Alcaide | Spanish exports of goods recorded a historic rise of 71.8 % in April to 25.841 billion euros, and imports rose by 63.9 % to 27.138 billion, compared to April 2020, which was marked by the restrictions of the pandemic. n the cumulative January-April period, Spanish exports recorded a rise of 16.9%, (a growth exceeding that of Germany with 11%, and France with 9.6%) totalling 98.149 billion euros, and imports of 10.3%, with 102.709 billion. This leaves in a trade deficit of 4.560 billion euros, 50.3% lower than a year earlier.
T.C. | Data on Spanish exports during the first quarter of this year, released yesterday by the “Exporters’ Club”, shows an upturn of 4.9% to 72.307 billion euros. This is 7.9 points higher than the rate for the same period in 2020, which was -3%. So Spanish exports of goods are already at the same level as in 2019. In fact, in March the increase in exports from Spain (29.9%)…
The positive trend in the euro area trade balance increased in October by 10.3% year-on-year, reaching 30 billion euros, according to data on international trade in goods published by Eurostat. By items, exports of goods from the euro area to the rest of the world contracted by 9%, to 199.3 billion euros. The fall was offset by a sharper decline in exports, which fell by 11.7%, to 169.3 billion euros. Commercial activity amongst the euro members fell by 6.8% in the tenth month of the year, to 166.1 billion euros.
Bankia Estudios | As expected, the improvement in the external sector observed in the first two months of the year did not continue in March. The Covid-19 crisis hit both exports and imports hard, with setbacks of more than 14% year-on-year: only trade in chemical products, mainly medicines, and food was exempt from the contraction. The Q1’20 accumulated drop in Spanish exports (3%) is similar to the one noted in the EMU (3.2%) and Germany (3.3%), but much lower than that in France (8.6%).
Oriol Carreras and Eduard Llorens i Jimeno (CaixaBank Research) | All the indicators suggest that next year will be defined by the same key elements. As we can see in the first chart, to the extent that global growth, and that of the euro area in particular, remains contained, we do not expect to see a significant surge in exports. Therefore, the foreign sector will continue to provide very modest contributions to growth. Moreover, the global environment will remain a source of risk.
Today the proposal of the British government will be known, although we do not know it will be a text agreed with the opposition , which insists it will not negotiate unless Theresa May renounces a no-deal Brexit. The UK is the fourth largest destination for Spanish exports. And the main foreign recipient of investment, so a hard Brexit would do significant damage to the country. All Spanish companies with presence in the UK have been discounting complicated scenarios since 2016.
Despite the slowdown in Spain’s exports, the number of national companies starting to export and of regular exporters which have been exporting for four years in a row are rising. How strong these exporters are is the question that CaixaBank Research answer analysing the geographical diversity of the destinations to which they export.
Enrique Fanjul (Real Instituto Elcano) | There has been a lot written lately about the role of the foreign sector as the driver of the Spanish economy’s recovery. There have also been some very interesting academic papers published, which provide us with more details of the new configuration of Spanish exports. The exports map is changing, with non-tourism services an increasingly more important segment.
In total, despite the big recession, the German economy has grown 26% so far this century and, even more importantly, 20% from the minimums of Q1’09. It is currently experiencing one of its best moments since the “V” exit from the big crisis.