Is it time to normalise interest rates?
There’s an idea circulating amongst the central banks or, more accurately, amongst pressure groups in the central banks. The crux of this idea is: “the central banks should normalise interest rates”.
FED
Fed and ECB: Sticking to gradualism and predictability
Both the Fed and the ECB remained gradual and predictable in their last week meetings as far as monetary policy is concerned. In opinion of Julius Baer, this prevented EUR/USD from taking a specific direction, “but monetary policy in the US and the eurozone are still diverging and justify a slightly stronger US dollar in the next month.”
“There Is Some Problem With The Productivity Statistics”
Mohamed El-Erian, currently chief economist with German insurance group Allianz, and touted as a possible sucessor to Stanley Fischer, believes that monetary policy cannot do any more. And that the governments of the democratic countries have not been capable of coordinating economic policies which solve the problems created by the last crisis.
Is This The End Of The Dollar’s Supremacy? Could The Yuan Replace It?
Could the yuan substitute the dollar and become the predominant currency? I would ask the following question: if you had some dollars, would you change them for yuan? No you wouldn’t, would you? We would like to demonstrate that the yuan is in no way a substitute for the dollar.
Jerome Powell, A “Low-Interest-Rate Guy”
US President Donald Trump eventually nominated Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell as next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Governor Powell has never dissented from the policy actions of the FOMC during his five years as a voting member. However, it remains to be seen how he will make his own mark on the US central bank.
The Fed Is Shrinking Its Balance Sheet—But Why?
Benjamin Cole | The worldwide bond market tops $100 trillion, and we live in a world (as we are incessantly told) of global capital markets. All told, there is more than $217 trillion in global debt outstanding, and that figure rises by many trillions every year, reports the Institute of International Finance.
Global economy gains further momentum with September leading indicators
The latest set of September PMIs published yesterday showed that global economic growth momentum will remain very strong until year end, with the US, Europe and Japan set for even higher growth in Q4 2017 and only a minor cooling of economic growth in China. This bodes well for a continuation of US rate normalisation in December 2017.
US Monetary Policy Normalisation: The Fed Will Not Organise Any Oktoberfest
Investors and observers have hailed the Fed’s decision to trim its balance sheet from October onwards as a turning point in the drive to normalise monetary policy. But a decline of $10 billion per month in the hefty portfolio the Fed has accumulated in recent years will hardly have any visible effect on the bond market.
Global Central Banks Put Monetary Policy Normalisation Plans On The Table
J.L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The global central banks are putting their plans for monetary normalisation on the table. But they also recognise that inflation risks are contained in the short-term. That means they have a margin of time to proceed with monetary normalisation in a cautious and patient way.
How Monetary Policy Determines Housing Prices
Benjamin Cole | While taxes and trade get the headlines, a major issue in the US is ubiquitous restrictive property zoning, and the false signals zoning sends to the Fed. Indeed, the “housing bubble” that led to Fed over-tightening in 2007 barely surfaced in Houston, but was highly prominent in San Francisco. Obviously, the “housing bubble” was not Fed-induced.