José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Citi flags that the US/Euro Area monetary conditions have noticeably narrowed since the start of the year. Financial conditions have relaxed in the US and tightened in the Eurozone mainly due to the trend in the relative exchange rate.
There is a 100% possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise rates today. As a result, the interest rate outlook won’t be the subject of debate and the interest, more than ever, will be on how the Fed is going to manage its balance sheet. What’s clear is that the Fed’s balance sheet will remain bigger than it was in the past.
Francisco Vidal | The emphasis put on the Federal Reserve’s actions and the US’ economy’s favourable performance over the last few years led to the debate over the possibility of the euro and the dollar reaching parity, which gained momentum at end-2016 and at the start of 2017. But the euro’s fundamentals are currently better than expected and, in the future, can count on the support of the ECB.
Should we be worried by the fact that the Fed is reducing its balance sheet? David Buckle from Fidelity is one of those who think not; moreover, he believes that it won’t have any impact on the financial markets.
Argemino Barro | The Conference Board is a non-profitable organisation set up just over half a century ago by 12 big corporations to soften their public image during a time of social unrest. Nowadays it offers analytic tools for different sectors of the economy and has 1,200 companies from 60 countries as partners. Its chief economist, Gad Levanon, analyses here the situation of the US economy in the Trump era.
There are still divergences between the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB. But if Draghi meets expectations for progressive withdrawal of the stimuli from September and rate hikes in the first few months of 2018, a new “currencies war” is not on the cards in the near future.
Trump’s attempt to get rid of the Obamacare health scheme has turned into a complete fiasco, and a similar fate might await his plans to revamp public expenditure. Trump’s own party mates share his will to reduce corporation tax, but have expressed deep concern about huge deficits. So much of the presidential agenda might end up in the dustbin.
I believe central banks don’t control long-term rates – which are decisive for investment – and that they can influence them in what we would call normal circumstances, namely when GDP is expanding and inflation is at its optimum level. The central bank trys to control the private market’s expectations, but it doesn’t always succeed.
J.L Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | What is clear from ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech last Thursday is that investors consider we are closer than farther away from the start of monetary normalisation against a backdrop of economic optimism.
Santander will not have to take the Fed’s qualitative stress test. From this year, only those banks with over $250 billion on their balance sheet. Its US holding has just $142 billion in assets. Not having to take the qualitative part of the test will increase Santander’s flexibility for implementing its plans to reward shareholders (dividends and/or share buybacks).