The Eternal Problem Of Spain’s Productivity
The problem in Spain’s economy: it’s that productivity is hardly apparent in the breakdown of GDP between the amount of work (number of hours worked) and the residue, which is productivity.
The problem in Spain’s economy: it’s that productivity is hardly apparent in the breakdown of GDP between the amount of work (number of hours worked) and the residue, which is productivity.
The latest batch of economic growth numbers corroborate a picture which we started to see last year, namely that the extent of the Eurozone recovery is widening. Germany is no longer the sole growth driver. Countries like Spain are catching up.
The US economy has entered its ninth year of growth and the recovery could last over 10 years, clocking up a new record. At this stage the doubt surrounding an atypical recovery is whether the best thing is for the Fed to maintain its monetary policy of the last few months and continue to gradually raise interest rates, despite the absence of inflationary pressures.
Suprising as it may be, 18 of the 19 members of the Eurozone saw an increase in GDP in Q1’17 with respect to Q4’16. Spain’s GDP improved by 0.6%; Italy managed to grow (0.2%); Germany and France clocked up a 0.4% rise. Only Greece remained in the red. The unemployment rate in the region has officially fallen to 9.6%…there is growth.
A survey by the Family Business Institute, which groups the big Spanish companies together, and the CIS’ economic confidence barometer show that people are confident about the outlook for the economy. But the political panorama is a different story. They are more wearied by the political tension and corruption than by the conditions of their daily lives.
The European Commission says that Spain continues to grow above the eurozone average and that this year GDP growth will exceed its highest pre-crisis level.
The improving macroeconomic backdrop and continued rise of the middle class as well as high private health spending, make Brazil a potentially “attractive” investment destination. However, AXA IM analyst Manolis Davradakis point that “the emerging market’s poor ranking in terms of ease of doing business and international competitiveness, plenty of risks remain.
The leading research departments have begun to make upward revisions to their forecasts for the Spanish economy in 2017 and 2018. The GDP figures confirm that our economy did not lose momentum in the final part of 2016 (in the end GDP grew 3.2% for the year as a whole). And the indicators on activity and confidence at the start of 2017 show a slight acceleration. The good performance from the labour market, and Spain’s competitive exports, will be key growth drivers.
We have seen how the public debt figures are being manipulated downward, and now we’re going to see how there are also manipulations in Spanish GDP, but this time they are upward. From this we can infer that the ratio of debt/GDP, which is a crucial figure for the health of any economy, is seriously undervalued.
These words of José de la Cruz Porfirio Díaz Mexican general and politician who served seven terms as President of Mexico between 1930 and 1915, fit pretty well now that Mexico is being threatened by more US trade protectionism.