BoAML | Even with structural reforms, trend GDP growth may not be consistent with comfortable debt sustainability in key peripherals by the time inflation normalizes. If the euro area does not make progress towards fiscal union in the meantime, the ECB will likely have to remain involved on the bond market.
The 2008 financial crisis was not a one-off event. The resources that were available to cope with that crisis would not necessarily be there if there was another crisis. Government debt and GDP ratios are still high, and pension and health costs are escalating across Europe.
BARCLAYS | Euro area Q1 preliminary GDP was revised down slightly to 0.5 % q/q from the flash release (-0.03pp), accelerating from Q4 0.3% q/q growth. German GDP rose 0.7% q/q, in line with our expectations, as robust domestic demand offset weak exports.
BofAML | No surprises. We do not expect any ECB action this week. After the package in March, we think the ECB will have a few months before going back to the drawing board. Dovish Fed tones and EUR appreciation do not help the ECB, but action beyond a reiteration of forward guidance seems very unlikely.
Guntram B. Wolff via Caixin | G-20 ministers in Shanghai appeared to be aware of the importance of structural work. In particular, there was agreement in our panel discussions that the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project of the OECD was an essential element to deal with tax avoidance and ensure that profits are taxed where economic activity generating it takes place.
James Alexander via Historinhas | Despite all the pessimism the Euro Area nearly caught up with US NGDP growth in Q4. Now that Italy and Spain have finally reported their Nominal GDP figures Eurostat shows that 4Q15 NGDP growth for the Euro monetary region as a whole was almost as fast, year-on-year, as the US.
In 2015, the Eurozone once again saw positive credit flows and a recovery in credit balance rates as a result of new transactions. But volumes are still well off pre-crisis maximum levels. In Spain, what does limit credit demand is the fact that companies have had positive financing capacity for the last seven years, which means that those with less debt have a strong self-financing buffer.
The figures issued by the Bank of Spain have confirmed what we could already see with the naked eye; namely that Spaniards are losing their fear of the future and spending again. After several years of austerity, the consumers in Spain have gradually loosened their purse strings over the past year. And to such an extent that consumer spending rose 3.1% in 2015, almost tripling the 1.2% registered a year earlier.
The figures in Spain are stubborn and worrying. Public debt will exceed 100% of GDP in 2016 and the deficit is not keeping pace with commited goals. So Spain’s public finances are a potential source of future instability, which the country cannot permit given that its external debt is close to 170% of GDP.
The most obvious falsehood in Spain’s Q4 GDP figure is the data related to Survey of the Active Population. According to Roberto Centeno,”job creation in the private sector slumped to 31,200 people from the 182,000 recorded in the previous quarter, with supposedly similar GDP growth. If we make a comparison with Q4 2014 to eliminate the seasonality effect, 63,100 new private sector jobs were created with GDP growth of 0.7%.”