Both the IFO German business climate indices for October and the Bundesbank’s latest monthly bulletin point to a stagnation of the German economy in Q4 2021. Germany’s business climate index, compiled by the IFO institute, declined in October to 97.7 points from 100.4 points in the previous month, and below the 98.0 points expected by analysts. After four consecutive months of decline, the index was at its lowest level in…
The coronavirus crisis threatens the survival of 15 percent of German companies, according to their responses to the ifo Business Survey for November. “That’s an improvement over June, when the figure was 21 percent,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Nevertheless, 86 percent of travel agencies and tour operators currently feel threatened, as do 76 percent of hotels and 62 percent of restaurants.”
Santander Credit Research | The scrapping programme to remove older vehicles and replace them with new ones helped Germany’s economy to emerge quickly from the consequences of the financial crisis a decade ago. Senior managers in the automotive industry, as well as trade unions, are due to meet with the German chancellery in Berlin on May 5 to discuss ways of overcoming the economic crisis. And this programme may be on the table.
Banca March | German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is considering temporarily lifting the suspension of the country’s debt limit in what would be a major change in the fiscal policy of Europe’s leading econom.
Lidia Conde (Frankfurt) | The fourth globalization now punishes the German middle class, which perceives how the revolution accelerates and introduces new elements such as the competence of Indian computer experts operating from home: they do not need to emigrate to work.
CdM | Economic growth in the Eurozone manufacturing sector continued to contract in July, and did so at the fastest rate since December 2012, according to the latest PMI index. Germany remained a source of weakness, registering its largest deterioration in 7 years.
On January 23rd, Germany’s Dax jumped to a new record high. But after no more than eight trading days, the German benchmark index lost over 7%, wiping out all year-to-date gains. Deutsche Bank AM’s reaction is optimistic instead: Its preference of German equities is the healthy macroeconomic environment and state of German corporations. On a 2-year horizon, the Dax could even climb to 15,000 points.
A three-party “Jamaica” coalition in Germany may not be so bad for Europe as observers fear. The real benefit for Europe would be German domestic policy. After four years of stasis under the grand coalition, the “Jamaica” parties could transform the German economy
The summer lull may continue to dampen stock market activity during the month of August, but there are two key events on the investor agenda this week. German GDP figures for Q2 and the minutes of the Fed’s late July meeting.
A political risk scenario is not taking shape in Europe, but that doesn’t mean there are no problems. They are still there and in France they will rear their head under the concept of “cohabitation.” The new president of the French Republic, more than likely, will have to live with the National Assembly being dominated by the traditional parties.