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In Europe 4th February 2015

Less is more: The Greek government needs a chisel, not a sledgehammer

By Jens Bastian via MacroPolis | The parliamentary majority achieved by the SYRIZA-led coalition government following the 25 January elections constitutes a strong political mandate in mathematical terms. Among one of the many immediate challenges facing the new administration is trying to translate its numerical advantage into a majority of support among Greek citizens, including those who did not vote for the senior coalition party. 

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In Europe 4th February 2015

Greece and common political sense

LONDON | Sigrún Davíðsdóttir | Forget economics, politics is key to understanding the Eurozone. The cries of  “Grexit”  lately have mostly been a repetition of an earlier discourse: in February 2012 Citi’s economists Willem Buiters and Ebrahim Rahbari coined the term “Grexit,” by July 2012 estimating its likelihood to 90%. Cheered on by the media, economists have taken over the debate of the Eurozone which is why much of it has been such a futile exercise: it is not economics, which ties the Eurozone together but the political determination of its leaders to make the euro work. With political will likelihood of any exit is 0. Ergo, Grexit is as unlikely now as it has always been in spite of the EU brinkmanship. One route Greece seems to be exploring is a tried and tested one: the “bisque clause” from 1946.

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In Europe 4th February 2015

Draghi holds the winning cards

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Attempts to convince Tsipras and his colleagues to call off their open mutiny against the discipline imposed under the Greek bailout seem to be doomed. The Greeks bet on a strategy that forces European partners to cave in, should the prospect of huge turmoil materialise. After all, they are fully aware that Greece will prove unable to repay its debt unless it grows at 7% rate for the coming 30 years. 

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Markets 4th February 2015

D-Day as Varoufakis lands in Germany

MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Today is a massive day for the euro zone. The outcome of negotiations between Greek politicans and  European bosses will be closely monitored by markets and euro zone partners alike. With Greek banks under pressure, a deal needs to be agreed soon.

 

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Markets 2nd February 2015

Greek odyssey to dominate the week ahead

MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Markets will be looking to how relations between the new Greek Government and European creditor nations play out in the week ahead. After a week of tense negotiations, the stakes are increasing all the time. Greek claims of insolvancy have irked its eurozone partners, but can all sides find a middle ground in the coming days?

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In Europe 28th January 2015

Striking a deal with Tsipras

MADRID | By JP Marin-Arrese | European governments are openly expressing dismay at the Greek election outcome. They have waited quite a long time to convey their congratulations wishes to Tsipras, the new elected Prime Minister. Berlin and Brussels stressed that debt restructuring was out of question while reminding him of  the need to keep pledges from former governments as a pre-condition for securing financial support. Yet, they should come to terms with him, the sooner the better, as a thoroughly deceived and frustrated European Council member can inflict damage to EU action. 

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Markets 28th January 2015

Falls to go on in Greek banks after Tsipras’ new government announcement

MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Investors are expecting continued falls in the value of Greek bank shares and indeed the value of the Athens stock exchange. That is due to the fact that the new Government of Alexis Tsipras appears to be on a collision course with the country’s creditors, something that may spook investors in the weeks ahead should agreement not be forthcoming.