UBS | Our base case forecasts for China’s growth are already below consensus at 6.2% for 2016 and 5.8% for 2017. In this note we study the impact on global economies and assets of a much darker and, in our view, extremely unlikely scenario where China real GDP growth slips to 4%, and nominal growth below 1.5%.
UBS | Last week’s 168th ordinary OPEC meeting in Vienna concluded without the group agreeing on any meaningful change in strategy. Contrary to an earlier wire report that the group was to lift its target outp ut ceiling to 31.5Mb/d the defining feature of the official release was the lack of any explicit reference to either the quota or to actual production.
The major economies are now characterised by desynchronised economic cycles, with divergent policy regimes. This complicates the equity investment decision. Europe may be a relative winner, but too much of the globe is seeing financial conditions tighten, against lacklustre growth, to be optimistic on directional trends. We see downside risk through the opening months of 2016. The European economy is moving in the right direction and further ECB action promises…
Since the Eurozone’s recovery started two years ago, the number of people in work has grown in all EU member states individually during the last seven quarters. In Q2’15 it expanded by 1.9% on a y-o-y basis.
The Spanish economy is in the “champions league” in terms of GDP growth, but has failed the deficit, unemployment and debt exams. The autumn forecasts from the European Commission raised the deficit non-compliance to 4.7% of GDP for this year and 3.6% for 2016, well off the levels of 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively, previously agreed with Brussels.
Popular chairman Angel Ron’s proposal to raise salaries in line with productivity in order to speed up the consolidation of economic growth is clearly at least worthy of a discussion. In the short-term, it would have repercussions not only on corporate profits but also on improving confidence, the recovery in consumption, the increase in production and job creation.
The international organisation maintained its forecasts for Spanish GDP growth (3.1% in 2015) but cut its global growth estimate to 3.1%, the worst performance since the start of the financial crisis six years ago.
Fernando Barciela | The IMF and other international organisations including the OECD are very worried these days that the global economy will only grow 3.3% or less this year. On the other hand, they are very happy about Spain achieving the same level. Why? What makes the diference?
BBVA Research maintains its assessment on the recovery of activity in 2015, with expected growth of 3.2%, slowing to 2.7% in 2016.
Markets, especially stocks exchanges, will continue to suffer from a slowdown in global growth. IMF managing director Christine Lagarde warned on Tuesday that expansion in EM as well as in developed ones will be “weaker” than expected in July.