The Spanish economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, one tenth less than in the previous quarter and also a tenth less than advanced at the end of July. It is the lowest rate of quarterly growth in three years, according to the National Accounts published this Monday by the National Institute for Statistics (INE).
Consumer price index rose 0.2% in Germany in June compared to May, while the yoy rate rose 1.6% (1.4% in May). The French National Statistics Institute, Insee, announced that the consumer price index (CPI) in France rose 0.2% in June compared to May, while the interannual rate rose 1.2% (0.9% in May). All figures coincide with analysts´ expectations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Spain rose 1% in April compared to the previous month and raised the yoy rate by two tenths to 1.5%, its third consecutive increase since February and its highest level since last November, according to the definitive figures published this Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), which coincide with those advanced at the end of last month.
José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | Fortunately, in the EMU, with the exception of the second half of 2014, when the expected inflation expectations traded by the five year German bond reached negative territory, this deflation risk seems much more contained. This could be the principal difference between the European and Japanese economies.
The inflation data for March will be the key publication of this week. With the market discounting a 0.1% drop in the main figure, Ebury analysts believe that a 1% inflation would be enough to drive a modest rebound in the euro from its current position.
Inflation fell six decimal points in November to 1.7%, the lowest in seven months in Spain. Within the deflationary evolution, almost general across components, energy process (electricity and oil) stand out. Analysts at Bankia Estudios predict a further fall for next year: It will recover in the first months of 2019 to around 2% and close the year at 1.5%.
Signs of a future increase in inflation are becoming increasingly visible. Natixis IM explains some of these global clues. First it is US long-term inflation outlook, which is currently situated around 2-3% and trending clearly higher.
Benjamin Cole | Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated the Fed’s 2% target is symmetric, which may be code words for “inflation a little above 2% is tolerable.” The US central bank may find fighting inflation resembles heart surgery with a chainsaw.
J.L.M. Campuzano | The ECB calculates that its extreme expansionary monetary measures have contributed nearly two points to European growth since 2014. The question now is whether the benefits of maintaining them outweigh the risks of prolonging excessively lax financial conditions too long.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | The first economy in the world has been creating net employment without interruption for seven years and eight months. For now everything indicates it will continue to do so. And best of all: there is no wage inflation. In other words, it is impossible to understand what is happening in the US, although that does not prevent various theories being advanced to explain the situation.