It’s The Inflation, Stupid
Trump’s policies are boosting inflation, stimulating asset values, depreciating debt, increasing growth prospects and decreasing democrat chances at the forthcoming polls.
inflation
Crude And The Euro Breathing Space Will Be Crucial In Deciding If Eurozone Inflation Remains At 1.9%
Francisco Vidal (Intermoney) | The next few days will be interesting as EU leaders confront the future of the European project, although they will also have to deal with the latest developments on Brexit, and no doubt dedicate time to US commercial belligerence.
Inflation: A Little Can Turn Out To Be A Lot
Just a couple of years ago, deflation was a concern for US economists. And, although it’s true that this threat has almost disappeared, rises in prices have shown themselves to be surprisingly elusive.
“Underlying US Inflation Has Never Really Risen Above 2% Since The Mid-1990s”
“If we analyse the data from the last 25 years, there is very little inflation. Underlying inflation in the US has never really fallen below 1% which means that the secular dynamism in the labour market is reducing inflation, via technology and globalisation,” explains Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan.
Are We Going To Be Talking About Stagflation Once Again?
After US inflation beat estimates in January, it’s likely the market will end up putting even more emphasis on the possibility of seeing inflation rates higher-than-expected months ago, or even stagflation. And, unfortunately, this will continue to spark potential over-reactions which would give way to strong, quick movements.
Welcome Mr Powell: Monetary Normalisation Is Not Going To Be A Bed Of Roses
The welcome the financial markets have given the new Fed chairman (Jerome Powell) shows that the end of the monetary normalisation process in the US is not going to be a bed of roses, despite the fact his predecessor (Yellen) left with a good part of the dirty work already well underway.
Low inflation sparks monetary policy confusion
The trend in inflation is confusing those in charge of monetary policy. After a significant uptick in the last part of 2017, it has really stagnated, in stark contrast with the growing dynamism of the economy.
“What will the year 2018 be like?” A persuasion test
How do I see the year 2018? Low growth and productivity, a declining working population, and an unsustainable rise in animal spirits. Everything comes to an end, and the longer it takes, the worse it is.
Anticipating Disaster: Jerome Powell In A Tricky Position
If Jerome Powell is “sold” on the idea that he has to restrain an economy that is “too vibrant”, the outcome will be “disaster”.
FED, ECB monetary policy: communication counts when doubts increase
The minutes released by the FED and the ECB last week shared concern about how to inform about their monetary stance. They fear unsettling the markets should investors wrongly interpret the messages conveyed to them. When you lack a clear policy perspective, the best thing you can do is to manage communication in a fairly tight way.