Intermoney | On the geopolitical agenda, where there are too many open fronts, issues such as Iran should not be overlooked. Since the beginning of the year, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime has been suffering from a wave of protests that are intensifying as a result of a battered economy and the currency crisis. This began at the end of last year, when the Iranian rial reached a historic low of…
European Views | The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues and so do the global gas supply issues. Iran hopes to step in and become Europe’s main gas provider replacing Russian gas export. Iran to Offer Alternative to Russian Gas Export in Europe Being the second-largest gas reserves globally, Iran has 34 trillion cubic metres of natural gas. It’s nearly 17% of the world’s total reserves. Some believe that Iran…
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The financial markets are signalling that the situation in the Middle East won’t get out of hand, but US-Iran friction could continue for some time. The defence industry and oil and gas-related sectors could remain well-supported, but overall we believe investors should be cautious yet patient. Look to higher-quality stocks with lower correlations to the broader market and “hunt for income” if headline volatility is a risk you wish to avoid.
Brent oil prices are up more than 30% this year and have reached levels last seen in 2014. BoAML’s team on Commodities have revised up their forecasts; they now expect Brent to peak at $95/bbl by the end of 2Q 2019. They also consider the impact on global growth of an even larger and more sustained oil spike. Specifically discuss the factors that could drive oil prices to $100/bbl, and hash out the winners and losers.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel |US President Donald Trump ‘s big mouth has failed to impress the world. And that is dangerous. At some point, the American might feel he needs to make good on his threats.
Julius Baer Research | Non-OPEC producers under the lead of Russia will join OPEC’s supply cuts, which was necessary for the deal to become effective. With the paperwork done, oil producers must now walk the talk. There are many buts and ifs and we remain sceptical if compliance with the quotas is sufficient to materially shift the oil market’s balance
The precipitous drop in oil prices in particular has forced rentier states, which were able to count on massive energy profits to fund generous state largesse up until a few years ago, to diversify their economic relationships with Europe and the rest of the world. These profits allowed states like Saudi Arabia and Iran to get by with incredibly inefficient economies, which officials in both countries are now actively restructuring in order to stimulate real growth and attract international business.
BARCLAYS | The Doha meeting, among 16 oil producers (OPEC and non-OPEC) concluded on Sunday, without an agreement on a production freeze. The much-awaited meeting exposed the political rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and ultimately doomed the agreement. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela agreed on a draft in advance to be put forward to the group, but the Saudis changed their stance on Sunday morning.
UBS | Given the re-emerging importance of Iran, we spent time digging into the operating environment in Iran and speaking with oilmen on the ground there.
Analysts at UBS are cutting our oil price forecast for the period 2015-19 and cutting long-term normalised view to $80/bbl from $90/bbl. Near oil term forecasts reflect the prospect of a lower 3Q outturn and the base from which we see the recovery in prices rising from